相关论文: Modelling Cascading Physical Climate Risk in Suppl…
Cascading failure is a potentially devastating process that spreads on real-world complex networks and can impact the integrity of wide-ranging infrastructures, natural systems, and societal cohesiveness. One of the essential features that…
In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet…
An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
A recurrent task in coordinated systems is managing (estimating, predicting, or controlling) signals that vary in space, such as distributed sensed data or computation outcomes. Especially in large-scale settings, the problem can be…
How do landscape fragmentation affects ecosystems diversity and stability is an important and complex question in ecology with no simple answer, as spatially separated habitats where species live are highly dynamic rather than just static.…
We introduce economic models based on Boolean Delay Equations: this formalism makes easier to take into account the complexity of the interactions between firms and is particularly appropriate for studying the propagation of an initial…
Urban flood emergency response increasingly relies on infrastructure impact forecasts rather than hazard variables alone. However, real-time predictions are unreliable due to biased rainfall, incomplete flood knowledge, and sparse…
Weather and environmental factors are verified to have played significant roles in historical major cascading outages and blackouts. Therefore, in the simulation and risk assessment of cascading outages in power systems, it is necessary to…
Cascading failures, triggered by a local perturbation, can be catastrophic and cause irreparable damages in a wide area. Hence, blocking the devastating cascades is an important issue in real world networks. One of the ways to control the…
In the era of a growing population, systemic changes to the world, and the rising risk of crises, humanity has been facing an unprecedented challenge of resource scarcity. Confronting and addressing the issues concerning the scarce…
Delay embedding---a method for reconstructing dynamical systems by delay coordinates---is widely used to forecast nonlinear time series as a model-free approach. When multivariate time series are observed, several existing frameworks can be…
Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…
We propose a novel framework for analyzing the dynamics of distribution shift in real-world systems that captures the feedback loop between learning algorithms and the distributions on which they are deployed. Prior work largely models…
Climate-driven power outages pose a growing threat to U.S. grid reliability, yet empirical outage studies and interdependency-based resilience analyses are rarely integrated. This paper presents a data-driven framework that integrates…
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber bundle model, the…
In recent years, the frequent occurrence of disruptions has had a negative impact on global supply chains. To stay competitive, enterprises strive to remain agile through the implementation of efficient and effective decision-making…
This paper introduces yet another stochastic model replicating chain-ladder estimates and furthermore considers extensions that add flexibility to the modeling. In its simplest form, the proposed model replicates the chain-ladder's…
Operational disruptions can significantly impact companies performance. Ford, with its 37 plants globally, uses 17 billion parts annually to manufacture six million cars and trucks. With up to ten tiers of suppliers between the company and…
Numerous complex systems, both natural and artificial, are characterized by the presence of intertwined supply and/or drainage networks. Here we present a minimalist model of such co-evolving networks in a spatially continuous domain, where…