相关论文: Anticipating AMOC transitions via deep learning
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is recognized as a tipping element within the global climate system. Central to its tipping behavior is the salt-advection feedback mechanism, which has been extensively studied in box…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning…
We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show…
We propose a hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) climate modeling approach that enables climate modelers in scientific discovery using a climate-targeted simulation methodology based on a novel combination of deep neural networks and…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) distributes heat and salt into the Northern Hemisphere via a warm surface current toward the subpolar North Atlantic, where water sinks and returns southwards as a deep cold current.…
The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a system of surface and deep currents encompassing all ocean basins, crucial to the Earth's climate. Detecting potential climatic changes in the MOC first requires a careful characterisation…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a much studied component of the climate system, because its suspected multistability is associated with tipping behaviour yielding potentially large regional and global climatic…
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability.…
Critical transitions are the abrupt shifts between qualitatively different states of a system, and they are crucial to understanding tipping points in complex dynamical systems across ecology, climate science, and biology. Detecting these…
The future behavioural fate of a forced nonlinear system can depend sensitively on the forcing profile as well as natural fluctuations within the system. This is especially the case for rate-induced tipping, where the forcing pushes the…
A large variety of complex systems in ecology, climate science, biomedicine and engineering have been observed to exhibit tipping points, where the internal dynamical state of the system abruptly changes. For example, such critical…
The results of a recent simulation with a complex global climate model suggest that the overturning component of the freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic could be used as an early-warning indicator of an AMOC…
Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms, such as the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS)…
A catastrophic collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have serious impacts on global climate. Based on eight AMOC proxies across the Atlantic basin Boers claimed to have found Early Warning Signals (EWS)…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…