相关论文: Kronos: A Foundation Model for the Language of Fin…

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based…

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs),…

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data,…

Modeling large-scale time series has gained significant attention in recent years. However, its direct application in finance remains challenging due to substantial differences in data characteristics across domains. Specifically, financial…

Time series reasoning is crucial to decision-making in diverse domains, including finance, energy usage, traffic, weather, and scientific discovery. While existing time series foundation models (TSFMs) can capture low-level dynamic patterns…

Conventional forecasting methods rely on unimodal time series data, limiting their ability to exploit rich textual information. Recently, large language models (LLMs) and time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated powerful…

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) has emerged as an effective paradigm for improving the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods -- most notably majority voting and heuristic token-level scoring -- treat…

Using Chronos-2, an open-source time-series foundation model, we evaluate pretrained time-series models for economic and financial forecasting with an emphasis on whether multivariate (MV) inputs improve accuracy relative to univariate (UV)…

Deep learning models have shown strong performance in load forecasting, but they generally require large amounts of data for model training before being applied to new scenarios, which limits their effectiveness in data-scarce scenarios.…

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series…

Large models have shown unprecedented capabilities in natural language processing, image generation, and most recently, time series forecasting. This leads us to ask the question: treating market prices as a time series, can large models be…

Inherent temporal heterogeneity, such as varying sampling densities and periodic structures, has posed substantial challenges in zero-shot generalization for Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). Existing TSFMs predominantly rely on…

Modeling car-following behavior is essential for traffic simulation, analyzing driving patterns, and understanding complex traffic flows with varying levels of autonomous vehicles. Traditional models like the Safe Distance Model and…

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, such as financial investment, weather services, and energy management. Although increasingly capable TSF methods occur, many of them require domain-specific data…

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in decision-making processes across diverse fields including meteorology, traffic, electricity, economics, finance, and so on. Especially, predicting returns on financial instruments is a…

This study investigates zero-shot forecasting capabilities of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for macroeconomic indicators. We apply TSFMs to forecasting economic indicators under univariate conditions, bypassing the need for train…

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential…

Time-series forecasting models (TSFM) have evolved from classical statistical methods to sophisticated foundation models, yet understanding why and when these models succeed or fail remains challenging. Despite this known limitation, time…

Time-series data is a vital modality within data science communities. This is particularly valuable in financial applications, where it helps in detecting patterns, understanding market behavior, and making informed decisions based on…

Contemporary models of high dimensional physical systems are constrained by the curse of dimensionality and a reliance on dense data. We introduce KHRONOS (Kernel Expansion Hierarchy for Reduced Order, Neural Optimized Surrogates), an AI…