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Adaptive design optimization (ADO) is a state-of-the-art technique for experimental design (Cavagnaro, Myung, Pitt, & Kujala, 2010). ADO dynamically identifies stimuli that, in expectation, yield the most information about a hypothetical…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-07-10 Sabina J. Sloman , Daniel Cavagnaro , Stephen B. Broomell

This paper shows how to use a randomized saturation experimental design to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of spillovers--one person's treatment may affect another's outcome--and one-sided non-compliance--subjects can…

We consider estimation of average treatment effects given observational data with high-dimensional pretreatment variables. Existing methods for this problem typically assume some form of sparsity for the regression functions. In this work,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-12 Yuhao Wang , Rajen D. Shah

Estimates of heterogeneous treatment assignment effects can inform treatment decisions. Under the presence of non-adherence (e.g., patients do not adhere to their assigned treatment), both the standard backdoor adjustment (SBD) and the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-22 Winston Chen , Trenton Chang , Jenna Wiens

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation as data accumulate. In practice, experimenters often consider multiple candidate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-08 Wenxin Zhang , Aaron Hudson , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

Randomized trials and observational studies, more often than not, run over a certain period of time. The treatment effect evolves during this period which provides crucial insights into the treatment response and the long-term effects. Many…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-04-13 Shu Li , Peter Bühlmann

I propose a treatment selection model that introduces unobserved heterogeneity in both choice sets and preferences to evaluate the average effects of a program offer. I show how to exploit the model structure to define parameters capturing…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-09-01 Vishal Kamat

Network interference occurs when a unit's outcome depends not only on its own treatment but also on the treatments received by connected units in the network. Experimental designs and analysis methods that ignore such interference can yield…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-04 Xiao Liu , Feifang Hu , Jingfei Zhang

Identification in a regression discontinuity (RD) research design hinges on the discontinuity in the probability of treatment when a covariate (assignment variable) exceeds a known threshold. When the assignment variable is measured with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-09-07 Zhuan Pei , Yi Shen

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is a popular approach to evaluate treatment effects in settings where both pre- and post-treatment measurements of the outcome are available. Despite its popularity, existing methods face important…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-31 Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Synthetic Control (SC) are widely used methods for causal inference in panel data, each with distinct strengths and limitations. We propose a novel method for short-panel causal inference that integrates…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-26 Yixiao Sun , Haitian Xie , Yuhang Zhang

Pragmatic trials increasingly define outcomes using real-world data such as electronic health records, where assessments are collected during routine care rather than at fixed timepoints. Consequently, these uncontrolled assessments may be…

This paper examines the identification and estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in event studies, emphasizing the importance of both lagged dependent variables and treatment effect heterogeneity. We show that omitting lagged…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-18 Irene Botosaru , Laura Liu

We provide sufficient conditions for the identification of the heterogeneous treatment effects, defined as the conditional expectation for the differences of potential outcomes given the untreated outcome, under the nonignorable treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-01-15 Keisuke Takahata , Takahiro Hoshino

We consider experimentation in the presence of non-stationarity, inter-unit (spatial) interference, and carry-over effects (temporal interference), where we wish to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE), the difference between…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-03-28 Su Jia , Nathan Kallus , Christina Lee Yu

When considering the effect a treatment will cause in a population of interest, we often look to evidence from randomized controlled trials. In settings where multiple trials on a treatment are available, we may wish to synthesize the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-08 Nicole Schnitzler , Eloise Kaizar

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an active area of research. Most of the existing methods, however, focus on estimating the conditional average treatment effects of a single, binary treatment given a set of pre-treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-30 Max Goplerud , Kosuke Imai , Nicole E. Pashley

Mid-study design modifications are becoming increasingly accepted in confirmatory clinical trials, so long as appropriate methods are applied such that error rates are controlled. It is therefore unfortunate that the important case of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2014-05-08 Dominic Magirr , Thomas Jaki , Franz Koenig , Martin Posch

After admission to emergency department (ED), patients with critical illnesses are transferred to intensive care unit (ICU) due to unexpected clinical deterioration occurrence. Identifying such unplanned ICU transfers is urgently needed for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-10 Chun-An Chou , Qingtao Cao , Shao-Jen Weng , Che-Hung Tsai

Confounding bias and selection bias bring two significant challenges to the validity of conclusions drawn from applied causal inference. The latter can stem from informative missingness, such as in cases of attrition. We introduce the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-25 Johan de Aguas , Johan Pensar , Tomás Varnet Pérez , Guido Biele