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Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-06-20 Yixin Wang , Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei

Estimation and inference of treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignments often suffer from bias and the `curse of dimensionality' due to the nonparametric estimation of nuisance parameters for high-dimensional confounders.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-08 Zeqi Wu , Meilin Wang , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang

Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-10-30 Justin Domke , Daniel Sheldon

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-14 Samuel D. Pimentel , Yaxuan Huang

Data analysis based on information from several sources is common in economic and biomedical studies. This setting is often referred to as the data fusion problem, which differs from traditional missing data problems since no complete data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-07 Wei Li , Shanshan Luo , Wangli Xu

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-28 Ziang Niu , Yuwen Gu , Wei Li

Motivated by two case studies using primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we describe statistical methods that facilitate the analysis of tall data, with very large numbers of observations. Our focus is on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-05-14 Kirsty Rhodes , Rebecca Turner , Rupert Payne , Ian White

Collaboration between different data centers is often challenged by heterogeneity across sites. To account for the heterogeneity, the state-of-the-art method is to re-weight the covariate distributions in each site to match the distribution…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-25 Tianyu Guo , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan

In a clustered observational study, a treatment is assigned to groups and all units within the group are exposed to the treatment. We develop a new method for statistical adjustment in clustered observational studies using approximate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-06 Luke Keele , Eli Ben-Michael , Lindsay Page

Standard estimators of the global average treatment effect can be biased in the presence of interference. This paper proposes regression adjustment estimators for removing bias due to interference in Bernoulli randomized experiments. We use…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-03-06 Alex Chin

Empirical researchers often use diagnostic checks to assess the plausibility of their modeling assumptions, such as testing for covariate balance in RCTs, pre-trends in event studies, or instrument validity in IV designs. While these checks…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-21 Reca Sarfati , Vod Vilfort

When examining a contrast between two interventions, longitudinal causal inference studies frequently encounter positivity violations when one or both regimes are impossible to observe for some subjects. Existing weighting methods either…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-11 Alec McClean , Iván Díaz

This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with covariate-adaptive randomization when there are multiple treatments. More specifically, we study inference about the average effect of one or more treatments relative to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-01-21 Federico A. Bugni , Ivan A. Canay , Azeem M. Shaikh

A key challenge in estimating causal effects from observational data is handling confounding and is commonly achieved through weighting methods that balance distribution of covariates between treatment and control groups. Weighting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-23 Simion De , Jared D. Huling

When making causal inferences, post-treatment confounders complicate analyses of time-varying treatment effects. Conditioning on these variables naively to estimate marginal effects may inappropriately block causal pathways and may induce…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-04-02 Xiang Zhou , Geoffrey T. Wodtke

Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially,…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2014-12-10 Benedikt Obermayer , Erel Levine

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-07 Ruoqi Yu , Shulei Wang

In healthcare, there is much interest in estimating policies, or mappings from covariates to treatment decisions. Recently, there is also interest in constraining these estimated policies to the standard of care, which generated the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-17 Samuel J. Weisenthal , Sally W. Thurston , Ashkan Ertefaie

A fundamental challenge in causal inference with observational data is correct specification of a causal model. When there is model uncertainty, analysts may seek to use estimates from multiple candidate models that rely on distinct, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Rohit Bhattacharya , Ina Ocelli , Ted Westling