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We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-26 Jingyue Huang , Changbao Wu , Leilei Zeng

Baseline covariates in randomized experiments are often used in the estimation of treatment effects, for example, when estimating treatment effects within covariate-defined subgroups. In practice, however, covariate values may be missing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-29 Gauri Kamat , Jerome P. Reiter

Measurement error is a pervasive issue which renders the results of an analysis unreliable. The measurement error literature contains numerous correction techniques, which can be broadly divided into those which aim to produce exactly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-08 Dylan Spicker , Michael P Wallace , Grace Y Yi

In this work, we consider the problem of imbalanced data in a regression framework when the imbalanced phenomenon concerns continuous or discrete covariates. Such a situation can lead to biases in the estimates. In this case, we propose a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-21 Samuel Stocksieker , Denys Pommeret , Arthur Charpentier

Randomized experiments are the "gold standard" for estimating causal effects, yet often in practice, chance imbalances exist in covariate distributions between treatment groups. If covariate data are available before units are exposed to…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-07-25 Kari Lock Morgan , Donald B. Rubin

Two-phase sampling designs are frequently employed in epidemiological studies and large-scale health surveys. In such designs, certain variables are exclusively collected within a second-phase random subsample of the initial first-phase…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-25 Lingxiao Wang

Linear regression is arguably the most fundamental statistical model; however, the validity of its use in randomized clinical trials, despite being common practice, has never been crystal clear, particularly when stratified or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-14 Wei Ma , Fuyi Tu , Hanzhong Liu

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-06-22 Jeffrey W. Miller , David B. Dunson

Randomization inference is a widely-used and appealing approach for analyzing treatment effects in randomized experiments, as it is finite-sample valid and does not require any distributional assumptions. However, naive application of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-12 Xinran Li , Peizan Sheng , Zeyang Yu

Estimating average causal effect (ACE) is useful whenever we want to know the effect of an intervention on a given outcome. In the absence of a randomized experiment, many methods such as stratification and inverse propensity weighting have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-07-11 Rathin Desai , Amit Sharma

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-24 Martha Barnard , Jared D. Huling , Julian Wolfson

Balancing influential covariates is crucial for valid treatment comparisons in clinical studies. While covariate-adaptive randomization is commonly used to achieve balance, its performance can be inadequate when the number of baseline…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-30 Ziqing Guo , Yang Liu , Lucy Xia

This paper proposes a~simple, yet powerful, method for balancing distributions of covariates for causal inference based on observational studies. The method makes it possible to balance an arbitrary number of quantiles (e.g., medians,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-14 Maciej Beręsewicz

Importance weighting is a standard tool for correcting distribution shift, but its statistical behavior under target shift -- where the label distribution changes between training and testing while the conditional distribution of inputs…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-04 Davit Gogolashvili

Quantiles and expected shortfalls are commonly used risk measures in financial risk management. The two measurements are correlated while have distinguished features. In this project, our primary goal is to develop stable and practical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-24 Xiang Peng , Huixia Judy Wang

Classical semiparametric inference with missing outcome data is not robust to contamination of the observed data and a single observation can have arbitrarily large influence on estimation of a parameter of interest. This sensitivity is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-02 Eva Cantoni , Xavier de Luna

Missing data is frequently encountered in many areas of statistics. Propensity score weighting is a popular method for handling missing data. The propensity score method employs a response propensity model, but correct specification of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-28 Hengfang Wang , Jae Kwang Kim , Jeongseop Han , Youngjo Lee

Importance sampling is a central idea underlying off-policy prediction in reinforcement learning. It provides a strategy for re-weighting samples from a distribution to obtain unbiased estimates under another distribution. However,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-28 Kristopher De Asis , Eric Graves , Richard S. Sutton