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Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters together with a likelihood. Eliciting meaningful priors on the weight space of modern overparameterized models is notoriously difficult, and misspecification…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-19 Boning Zhang , Matteo Zecchin , Mingzhao Guo , Dongzhu Liu , Osvaldo Simeone

In this work, we investigate the use of Besov priors in the context of Bayesian inverse problems. The solution to Bayesian inverse problems is the posterior distribution which naturally enables us to interpret the uncertainties. Besov…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-06-23 Andreas Horst , Babak Maboudi Afkham , Yiqiu Dong , Jakob Lemvig

The methodology developed in this article is motivated by a wide range of prediction and uncertainty quantification problems that arise in Statistics, Machine Learning and Applied Mathematics, such as non-parametric regression, multi-class…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-03-26 Victor Chen , Matthew M. Dunlop , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Andrew M. Stuart

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-02 Edwin Fong , Andrew Yiu

In this work, we address the problem of solving a series of underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We generalize the spike-and-slab prior distribution to encode a priori correlation of the support of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-19 Michael Riis Andersen , Aki Vehtari , Ole Winther , Lars Kai Hansen

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

This note attempts to revisit the classical results on Laplace approximation in a modern non-asymptotic and dimension free form. Such an extension is motivated by applications to high dimensional statistical and optimization problems. The…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-13 Vladimir Spokoiny

Loss-based clustering methods, such as k-means and its variants, are standard tools for finding groups in data. However, the lack of quantification of uncertainty in the estimated clusters is a disadvantage. Model-based clustering based on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-11 Tommaso Rigon , Amy H. Herring , David B. Dunson

We study full Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional linear regression under sparsity constraints. The prior is a mixture of point masses at zero and continuous distributions. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, the…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-10-15 Ismaël Castillo , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber , Aad van der Vaart

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-20 Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Ročková

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Performing inference in Bayesian models requires sampling algorithms to draw samples from the posterior. This becomes prohibitively expensive as the size of data sets increase. Constructing approximations to the posterior which are cheap to…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-04-19 George Wynne

Gibbs type priors have been shown to be natural generalizations of Dirichlet process (DP) priors used for intricate applications of Bayesian nonparametric methods. This includes applications to mixture models and to species sampling models…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-08-29 Lancelot F. James

Laplacian-P-splines (LPS) associate the P-splines smoother and the Laplace approximation in a unifying framework for fast and flexible inference under the Bayesian paradigm. Gaussian Markov field priors imposed on penalized latent variables…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-18 Philippe Lambert , Oswaldo Gressani

Supervised topic models with a logistic likelihood have two issues that potentially limit their practical use: 1) response variables are usually over-weighted by document word counts; and 2) existing variational inference methods make…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-10-10 Jun Zhu , Xun Zheng , Bo Zhang

Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-09-11 Abhik Ghosh , Tuhin Majumder , Ayanendranath Basu

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-17 Leonardo Cella , Emily C. Hector

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-09-29 Tiep Mai , Simon Wilson