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In this article we quantify the bullwhip effect (the variance amplification in replenishment orders) when demands and lead times are predicted in a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. In recent research the…

概率论 · 数学 2015-07-30 Zbigniew Michna , Peter Nielsen

The progressive amplification of fluctuations in demand as the demand travels upstream the supply chains is known as the bullwhip effect. We first analytically characterize the bullwhip effect in general supply chain networks in two cases:…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-08-10 Jin-Zhu Yü , Chencheng Cai , Jianxi Gao

The measure of the bullwhip effect, a phenomenon in which demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, is a major issue in Supply Chain Management. Although it is simply defined (it is the ratio of the unconditional…

应用统计 · 统计学 2010-10-20 Marlene Silva Marchena

We quantify the bullwhip effect (which measures how the variance in replenishment orders is amplified as the orders move up the supply chain) when random demands and random lead times are estimated using the industrially popular moving…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-02-07 Zbigniew Michna , Stephen M. Disney , Peter Nielsen

Demand forecasting based on empirical data is a viable approach for optimizing a supply chain. However, in this approach, a model constructed from past data occasionally becomes outdated due to long-term changes in the environment, in which…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2021-09-07 Takahiro Ezaki , Naoto Imura , Katsuhiro Nishinari

In this article we want to review the research state on the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead times and give a contribution to quantifying the bullwhip effect. We analyze the models quantifying the bullwhip effect in…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-03-23 Zbigniew Michna , Peter Nielsen , Izabela Ewa Nielsen

Supply Chain operation is an integrated business process starting from primary supplier to end user and the process produce products, services and information. A successful chain will explore technology, lean operations, and quality…

其他计算机科学 · 计算机科学 2011-11-04 Bidyut Biman Sarkar , Sugata Sanyal , Nabendu Chaki

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Dirk Helbing

Network theory is rapidly changing our understanding of complex systems, but the relevance of topological features for the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks, food webs, production systems, information networks, or cascade failures of…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing , Stefan Lämmer

The wastage of perishable items has led to significant health and economic crises, increasing business uncertainty and fluctuating customer demand. This issue is worsened by online food delivery services, where frequent and unpredictable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-01 Tisha Ghosh

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…

统计力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing

Amplification and phase shift in ordering signals, commonly referred to as bullwhip, are responsible for both excessive strain on real world inventory management systems, stock outs, and unnecessary capital reservation though safety stock…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-28 James Paine

Supply chain management and inventory control provide most exciting examples of control systems with delays. Here, Smith predictors, model-free control and new time series forecasting techniques are mixed in order to derive an efficient…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2021-01-07 Koussaila Hamiche , Michel Fliess , Cédric Join , Hassane Abouaïssa

The bullwhip study has received a lot of attention in the literature, but with conflicting results, especially in the context of data aggregation. In this paper, we investigate three widely studied factors in bullwhip measurement: time…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-03 Hau Mike Ma , Jiazhen Huo , Yongrui Duan

Supply chain management faces significant challenges, including demand fluctuations, inventory imbalances, and amplified upstream order variability due to the bullwhip effect. Traditional methods, such as simple moving averages, struggle to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-11-17 Chunan Tong

Motivated by how forecast errors exacerbate order fluctuations in supply chains, we leverage robust feedback controller synthesis to characterize, compute, and minimize the worst-case order fluctuation experienced by an individual supply…

新兴技术 · 计算机科学 2024-09-16 Sarah H. Q. Li , Florian Dörfler

We show how to treat supply networks as physical transport problems governed by balance equations and equations for the adaptation of production speeds. Although the non-linear behaviour is different, the linearized set of coupled…

统计力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Dirk Helbing , Stefan Lammer , Thomas Seidel , Petr Seba , Tadeusz Platkowski

A general theory of top-down cascades in complex networks is described which explains two similar types of perturbation amplifications in the complex networks of business supply chains (the `bullwhip effect') and ecological food webs…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2012-01-31 Reginald D. Smith

Due to delays in the adaptation of production or delivery rates, supply chains can be dynamically unstable with respect to perturbations in the consumption rate, which is known as "bull-whip effect". Here, we study several conceivable…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Takashi Nagatani , Dirk Helbing

The transport of products between different suppliers or production units can be described similarly to driven many-particle and traffic systems. We introduce equations for the flow of goods in supply networks and the adaptation of…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2009-09-29 Dirk Helbing
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