相关论文: Understanding the European energy crisis through s…

Global food security depends on tightly coupled international supply chains including natural gas, mineral fertilizers, and staple crops. Earlier research has examined potential consequences of disruptions in each of these domains…

Recent studies provide evidence that decomposing the electricity price into the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) and the remaining part, predicting both separately, and then combining their forecasts can bring significant accuracy gains…

Capacity expansion models used for policy support have increasingly represented both the variability and uncertainty of weather-dependent generation (wind and solar). However, although also uncertain, as demonstrated by the performance of…

This working paper presents a comprehensive study on the development and analysis of various electricity market models, focusing on continuous, discrete, and fractional-order approaches. The continuous model captures the ongoing…

In an electric power system, demand fluctuations may result in significant ancillary cost to suppliers. Furthermore, in the near future, deep penetration of volatile renewable electricity generation is expected to exacerbate the variability…

Climate and energy policy targets of the European Commission aim to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. For low-carbon and net-neutral energy systems primarily based on variable renewable power generation, issues…

This work examines how the dependence structures between energy futures asset prices differ in two periods identified before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. These two periods were characterised by a difference in the number of…

Electricity is traded on various markets with different time horizons and regulations. Short-term intraday trading becomes increasingly important due to the higher penetration of renewables. In Germany, the intraday electricity price…

The participation of consumers and producers in demand response programs has increased in smart grids, which reduces investment and operation costs of power systems. Also, with the advent of renewable energy sources, the electricity market…

The design of the future European energy system depends heavily on how Europe balances its domestic hydrogen production against its reliance on imports. This study reveals that neither-extreme full self-sufficiency nor complete reliance on…

We propose to use a recently introduced non-parametric tool named Differentiable Information Imbalance (DII) to identify variables that are causally related -- potentially through non-linear relationships -- to the financial returns of the…

Putting a price on carbon -- with taxes or developing carbon markets -- is a widely used policy measure to achieve the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper tackles the issue of producing point, direction-of-change, and density…

The interactions of the natural gas (NG) network and the electricity system are increased by using gas-fired generation units, which use NG to produce electricity. There are various uncertainty sources such as the forced outage of…

This paper proposes a novel method for demand forecasting in a pricing context. Here, modeling the causal relationship between price as an input variable to demand is crucial because retailers aim to set prices in a (profit) optimal manner…

We present a novel approach to the pricing of financial instruments in emission markets, for example, the EU ETS. The proposed structural model is positioned between existing complex full equilibrium models and pure reduced form models.…

Accurate electrical consumption forecasting is crucial for efficient energy management and resource allocation. While traditional time series forecasting relies on historical patterns and temporal dependencies, incorporating external…

Oil prices above $100/barrel values have proven unaffordable for the world economy, while lower prices have proven unaffordable for unconventional oil sources, resulting in a frantic price swing since 2007-2008. We identify and combine for…

Using data from a sample of 28 representatives countries, we propose a classification of currency crises consequences based on the ultrametric analysis of the real exchange rate movements time series, without any further assumption. By…

The economic consequences of drought episodes are increasingly important, although they are often difficult to apprehend in part because of the complexity of the underlying mechanisms. In this article, we will study one of the consequences…

How do severe shocks such as war alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. Using unique transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments around the start of the…