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This paper tackles the problem of time-to-event counterfactual survival prediction, aiming to optimize individualized survival outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity and censored data. We propose CURE, a framework that advances…

Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-28 Stratis Tsirtsis , Abir De , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) from observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, with less attention paid to survival outcomes and almost none to settings with competing risks. In…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-30 Shenbo Xu , Raluca Cobzaru , Stan N. Finkelstein , Roy E. Welsch , Kenney Ng , Zach Shahn

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

This paper addresses the problem of identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment in the presence of unmeasured confounding and various types of right-censoring. Examples of these censoring mechanisms are administrative…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-03-19 Ilias Willems , Sara Rutten , Gilles Crommen , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Interval censoring occurs when event times are only known to fall between scheduled assessments, a common design in clinical trials, epidemiology, and reliability studies. Standard right-censoring methods, such as Kaplan-Meier and Cox…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-04 J. T. Korley

Clinical decision-making often involves selecting tests that are costly, invasive, or time-consuming, motivating individualized, sequential strategies for what to measure and when to stop ascertaining. We study the problem of learning…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Doudou Zhou , Yiran Zhang , Dian Jin , Yingye Zheng , Lu Tian , Tianxi Cai

Longitudinal observational patient data can be used to investigate the causal effects of time-varying treatments on time-to-event outcomes. Several methods have been developed for controlling for the time-dependent confounding that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-08 Ruth H. Keogh , Jon Michael Gran , Shaun R. Seaman , Gwyneth Davies , Stijn Vansteelandt

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

Automatic medical question summarization can significantly help the system to understand consumer health questions and retrieve correct answers. The Seq2Seq model based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied in this task,…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-02-15 Ming Zhang , Shuai Dou , Ziyang Wang , Yunfang Wu

Existing survival analysis techniques heavily rely on strong modelling assumptions and are, therefore, prone to model misspecification errors. In this paper, we develop an inferential method based on ideas from conformal prediction, which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-25 Emmanuel J. Candès , Lihua Lei , Zhimei Ren

We propose a censored quantile regression estimator motivated by unbiased estimating equations. Under the usual conditional independence assumption of the survival time and the censoring time given the covariates, we show that the proposed…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-02-04 Chenlei Leng , Xingwei Tong

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

In real-world healthcare settings, treatment decisions often involve optimizing for multivariate outcomes such as treatment efficacy and severity of side effects based on individual preferences. However, existing statistical methods for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-03 Joshua P. Zitovsky , Yating Zou , Leslie Wilson , Michael R. Kosorok

Kaplan-Meier survival analysis represents the most objective measure of treatment efficacy in oncology, though subjected to potential bias, which is worrisome in an era of precision medicine. Independent of the bias inherent to the design…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-17 Enrique Barrajón , Laura Barrajón

We introduce the lookahead-bounded Q-learning (LBQL) algorithm, a new, provably convergent variant of Q-learning that seeks to improve the performance of standard Q-learning in stochastic environments through the use of ``lookahead'' upper…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-30 Ibrahim El Shar , Daniel R. Jiang

We propose a novel personalized concept for the optimal treatment selection for a situation where the response is a multivariate vector, that could contain right-censored variables such as survival time. The proposed method can be applied…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-03 Chathura Siriwardhana , K. B. Kulasekera , Somnath Datta

Estimating prognosis conditional on surviving an initial high-risk period is crucial in clinical research. Yet, standard metrics such as hazard ratios are often difficult to interpret, while mean-based summaries are sensitive to outliers…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-16 Taekwon Hong , Woojung Bae , Sang Kyu Lee , Dongrak Choi , Jong-Hyeon Jeong

Q-learning is a promising method for solving optimal control problems for uncertain systems without the explicit need for system identification. However, approaches for continuous-time Q-learning have limited provable safety guarantees,…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-01-30 Soutrik Bandyopadhyay , Shubhendu Bhasin