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This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-10-05 Martin Emil Jakobsen

Classical causal inference assumes treatments meant for a given unit do not have an effect on other units. This assumption is violated in interference problems, where new types of spillover causal effects arise, and causal inference becomes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-30 Ilya Shpitser , Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ryan Andrews

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-02-11 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

The method of covariate adjustment is often used for estimation of population average treatment effects in observational studies. Graphical rules for determining all valid covariate adjustment sets from an assumed causal graphical model are…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-12-18 Andrea Rotnitzky , Ezequiel Smucler

This paper considers the inference of trends in multiple, nonstationary time series. To test whether trends are parallel to each other, we use a parallelism index based on the L2-distances between nonparametric trend estimators and their…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-17 David Degras , Zhiwei Xu , Ting Zhang , Wei Biao Wu

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-01 Harsh Parikh , Carlos Varjao , Louise Xu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Shared controls in platform trials comprise concurrent and non-concurrent controls. For a given experimental arm, non-concurrent controls refer to data from patients allocated to the control arm before the arm enters the trial. The use of…

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Interpretability research takes counterfactual theories of causality for granted. Most causal methods rely on counterfactual interventions to inputs or the activations of particular model components, followed by observations of the change…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-08 Aaron Mueller

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Learning about cause and effect is arguably the main goal in applied econometrics. In practice, the validity of these causal inferences is contingent on a number of critical assumptions regarding the type of data that has been collected and…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-03-03 Paul Hünermund , Elias Bareinboim

We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-06 Dimitris Bertsimas , Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Modeling causal relationships in graph representation learning remains a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches often draw on theories and methods from causal inference to identify causal subgraphs or mitigate confounders. However, due…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-13 Hang Gao , Kunyu Li , Huang Hong , Baoquan Cui , Fengge Wu

Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-05 Kwangho Kim , Jisu Kim , Edward H. Kennedy

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

While logistic regression models are easily accessible to researchers, when applied to network data there are unrealistic assumptions made about the dependence structure of the data. For temporal networks measured in discrete time, recent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-05-20 Daniel K. Sewell

Treatment effect estimation from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal inference. There are two very different schools of thought that have tackled this problem. On one hand, Pearlian framework commonly assumes structural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-01 Abhin Shah , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Kartik Ahuja

Here, we explain and illustrate a geometric perspective on causal inference in cohort studies that can help epidemiologists understand the role of standardization in causal inference as well as the distinctions between confounding, effect…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-06-27 Eben Kenah

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk
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