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Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Yuanqi Du , Jiajun He , Dinghuai Zhang , Eric Vanden-Eijnden , Carles Domingo-Enrich

The problem of studying rare events is central to many areas of computer simulations. In a recent paper [Kang, P., et al., Nat. Comput. Sci. 4, 451-460, 2024], we have shown that a powerful way of solving this problem passes through the…

计算物理 · 物理学 2026-03-03 Enrico Trizio , Peilin Kang , Michele Parrinello

Under-reporting of count data poses a major roadblock for prediction and inference. In this paper, we focus on the Pogit model, which deconvolves the generating Poisson process from the censuring process controlling under-reporting using a…

Autoregressive neural network models have been used successfully for sequence generation, feature extraction, and hypothesis scoring. This paper presents yet another use for these models: allocating more computation to more difficult…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-03 Loren Lugosch , Derek Nowrouzezahrai , Brett H. Meyer

To address the challenges of imbalanced multi-class datasets typically used for rare event detection in critical cyber-physical systems, we propose an optimal, efficient, and adaptable mixed integer programming (MIP) ensemble weighting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-16 Georgios Tertytchny , Georgios L. Stavrinides , Maria K. Michael

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of weather systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. Apart from Auto Regressive time forecasting models like…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2023-11-27 Anuvab Sen , Arul Rhik Mazumder , Dibyarup Dutta , Udayon Sen , Pathikrit Syam , Sandipan Dhar

In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-01-13 Gianluca Rosso

The committor function is a central object of study in understanding transitions between metastable states in complex systems. However, computing the committor function for realistic systems at low temperatures is a challenging task, due to…

计算物理 · 物理学 2019-09-04 Qianxiao Li , Bo Lin , Weiqing Ren

Complex event processing (CEP) is widely employed to detect occurrences of predefined combinations (patterns) of events in massive data streams. As new events are accepted, they are matched using some type of evaluation structure, commonly…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2018-05-01 Ilya Kolchinsky , Assaf Schuster

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-04-14 Justin Finkel , Paul A. O'Gorman

Non-significant randomized control trials can hide subgroups of good responders to experimental drugs, thus hindering subsequent development. Identifying such heterogeneous treatment effects is key for precision medicine and many post-hoc…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-24 Valentine Perrin , Nathan Noiry , Nicolas Loiseau , Alex Nowak

BACKGROUND: Random-effects meta-analysis within a hierarchical normal modeling framework is commonly implemented in a wide range of evidence synthesis applications. More general problems may even be tackled when considering meta-regression…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-12-27 Christian Röver , Tim Friede

In the realm of contemporary data analysis, the use of massive datasets has taken on heightened significance, albeit often entailing considerable demands on computational time and memory. While a multitude of existing works offer optimal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-21 Tal Agassi , Nir Keret , Malka Gorfine

Ensembles are popular methods for solving practical supervised learning problems. They reduce the risk of having underperforming models in production-grade software. Although critical, methods for learning heterogeneous regression ensembles…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-04-18 Jihed Khiari , Luis Moreira-Matias , Ammar Shaker , Bernard Zenko , Saso Dzeroski

We introduce a new learned descriptor for audio signals which is efficient for event representation. The entries of the descriptor are produced by evaluating a set of regressors on the input signal. The regressors are class-specific and…

声音 · 计算机科学 2016-11-15 Huy Phan , Marco Maass , Lars Hertel , Radoslaw Mazur , Ian McLoughlin , Alfred Mertins

Time-to-event (survival) analysis models the time until a pre-specified event occurs. When time is measured in discrete units or rounded into intervals, standard continuous-time models can yield biased estimators. In addition, the event of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-19 Tomer Meir , Rom Gutman , Malka Gorfine

Recurrent event analyses have found a wide range of applications in biomedicine, public health, and engineering, among others, where study subjects may experience a sequence of event of interest during follow-up. The R package reReg (Chiou…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-08-23 Sy Han Chiou , Gongjun Xu , Jun Yan , Chiung-Yu Huang

The challenge of \textbf{imbalanced regression} arises when standard Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) biases models toward high-frequency regions of the data distribution, causing severe degradation on rare but high-impact ``tail'' events.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-09 Enrico Camporeale

In the domain of vehicle telematics the automated recognition of driving maneuvers is used to classify and evaluate driving behaviour. This not only serves as a component to enhance the personalization of insurance policies, but also to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-01 Jonathan Schuster , Fabian Transchel

Many scientific and engineering problems require accurate models of dynamical systems with rare and extreme events. Such problems present a challenging task for data-driven modelling, with many naive machine learning methods failing to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-03 Samuel Rudy , Themistoklis Sapsis