相关论文: Adversarial Observations in Weather Forecasting

Nowcasting leverages real-time atmospheric conditions to forecast weather over short periods. State-of-the-art models, including PySTEPS, encounter difficulties in accurately forecasting extreme weather events because of their unpredictable…

Effective climate risk assessment is hindered by the resolution gap between coarse global climate models and the fine-scale information needed for regional decisions. We introduce GenFocal, an AI framework that generates statistically…

The advancements in the state of the art of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) brought by diffusion models can be highly beneficial in novel contexts involving Earth observation data. After introducing this new family of generative…

Designing early warning system for precipitation requires accurate short-term forecasting system. Climate change has led to an increase in frequency of extreme weather events, and hence such systems can prevent disasters and loss of life.…

This study examines the predictability of artificial intelligence (AI) models for weather prediction. Using a simple deep-learning architecture based on convolutional long short-term memory and the ERA5 data for training, we show that…

Accurately forecasting extreme rainfall is notoriously difficult, but is also ever more crucial for society as climate change increases the frequency of such extremes. Global numerical weather prediction models often fail to capture…

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based models are revolutionizing weather forecasting and have surpassed leading numerical weather prediction systems on various benchmark tasks. However, their ability to extrapolate and reliably forecast…

This work presents an autoregressive generative diffusion model (DiffObs) to predict the global evolution of daily precipitation, trained on a satellite observational product, and assessed with domain-specific diagnostics. The model is…

A 'nowcast' is a type of weather forecast which makes predictions in the very short term, typically less than two hours - a period in which traditional numerical weather prediction can be limited. This type of weather prediction has…

Accurate forecasting of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or storms is critical for risk management and disaster mitigation. Although high-resolution radar observations have spurred extensive research on nowcasting models,…

Load forecasting plays a critical role in the operation and planning of power systems. By using input features such as historical loads and weather forecasts, system operators and utilities build forecast models to guide decision making in…

Land cover, both present and future, has a significant effect on several important Earth system processes. For example, impervious surfaces heat up and speed up surface water runoff and reduce groundwater infiltration, with concomitant…

Recently, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved remarkable performances in many applications, while several studies have enhanced their vulnerabilities to malicious attacks. In this paper, we emulate the effects of natural weather…

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Attributing individual extreme events (EEs) to ACC is becoming crucial to assess the risks of climate change. Traditional attribution…

Precipitation nowcasting, predicting future radar echo sequences from current observations, is a critical yet challenging task due to the inherently chaotic and tightly coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of the atmosphere. While recent…

Accurate ocean forecasting systems are vital for understanding marine dynamics, which play a crucial role in environmental management and climate adaptation strategies. Traditional numerical solvers, while effective, are computationally…

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air…

Long-range time series forecasting is usually based on one of two existing forecasting strategies: Direct Forecasting and Iterative Forecasting, where the former provides low bias, high variance forecasts and the later leads to low…

Natural disasters, including earthquakes, wildfires and cyclones, bear a huge risk on human lives as well as infrastructure assets. An effective response to disaster depends on the ability to rapidly and efficiently assess the intensity of…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…