相关论文: A metrological framework for uncertainty evaluatio…

In a world where Machine Learning (ML) is increasingly deployed to support decision-making in critical domains, providing decision-makers with explainable, stable, and relevant inputs becomes fundamental. Understanding how machine learning…

As machine learning (ML) methods continue to be applied to a broad scope of problems in the physical sciences, uncertainty quantification is becoming correspondingly more important for their robust application. Uncertainty aware machine…

We present a new framework for the assessment and calibration of medium range ensemble temperature forecasts. The method is based on maximising the likelihood of a simple parametric model for the temperature distribution, and leads to some…

The inferential model (IM) framework produces data-dependent, non-additive degrees of belief about the unknown parameter that are provably valid. The validity property guarantees, among other things, that inference procedures derived from…

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

In this paper, we address the identification problem for the systems characterized by linear time-invariant dynamics with bilinear observation models. More precisely, we consider a suitable parametric description of the system and formulate…

Machine learning (ML) has often been applied to space weather (SW) problems in recent years. SW originates from solar perturbations and is comprised of the resulting complex variations they cause within the systems between the Sun and…

Machine learning (ML) approaches enable large-scale atomistic simulations with near-quantum-mechanical accuracy. With the growing availability of these methods there arises a need for careful validation, particularly for physically agnostic…

The comprehensive integration of machine learning healthcare models within clinical practice remains suboptimal, notwithstanding the proliferation of high-performing solutions reported in the literature. A predominant factor hindering…

The use of deep learning for medical imaging has seen tremendous growth in the research community. One reason for the slow uptake of these systems in the clinical setting is that they are complex, opaque and tend to fail silently. Outside…

This paper explores the challenges in evaluating machine learning (ML) models for continuous health monitoring using wearable devices beyond conventional metrics. We state the complexities posed by real-world variability, disease dynamics,…

Interpretability and uncertainty quantification in machine learning can provide justification for decisions, promote scientific discovery and lead to a better understanding of model behavior. Symbolic regression provides inherently…

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

Effectively measuring and modeling the reliability of a trained model is essential to the real-world deployment of monocular depth estimation (MDE) models. However, the intrinsic ill-posedness and ordinal-sensitive nature of MDE pose major…

Accurately knowing uncertainties in appearance-based gaze tracking is critical for ensuring reliable downstream applications. Due to the lack of individual uncertainty labels, current uncertainty-aware approaches adopt probabilistic models…

In the overview, a generic mathematical object (mapping) is introduced, and its relation to model physics parameterization is explained. Machine learning (ML) tools that can be used to emulate and/or approximate mappings are introduced.…

In many high-risk machine learning applications it is essential for a model to indicate when it is uncertain about a prediction. While large language models (LLMs) can reach and even surpass human-level accuracy on a variety of benchmarks,…

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly being integrated into computational social science research, yet their blackboxed training and designed stochastic elements in inference pose unique challenges for scientific inquiry. This article…

Uncertainty in machine learning refers to the degree of confidence or lack thereof in a model's predictions. While uncertainty quantification methods exist, explanations of uncertainty, especially in high-dimensional settings, remain an…