相关论文: How Election Shocks Impact Markets: Evidence from …

There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections…

Using transaction-level trade data from Polymarket's 2024 U.S. presidential election market, we study how prediction markets process shocks. We analyze three events: the Biden-Trump debate, the assassination attempt on Trump, and Biden's…

One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper…

Adverse economic shocks are known to reshape voter behavior -- the demand side of politics. Much less is known about their consequences for the supply side: how such shocks affect who becomes a politician. This paper examines how job losses…

We study the impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market volatility. We jointly analyze three different structural oil market shocks (i.e., aggregate demand, oil supply, and oil-specific demand shocks) and stock market volatility…

We find striking correlations between the presidential election outcome probability and major financial indicators, including USD currency pairs, bond prices, stock index futures, and a market volatility measure. The correlations are…

There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential…

How a shock to an individual sector propagates to the prices of other sectors and aggregates to GDP depends on how easily sectoral goods can be substituted in production, which is determined by the intermediate input substitution…

We propose a computational framework for modeling opinion dynamics in electoral competitions that combines two realistic features: voter memory and exogenous shocks. The population is represented by a fully-connected network of agents, each…

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between electoral polls and indicators of economic and financial uncertainty during the last two U.S. presidential elections (2020 and 2024). Using daily polling data on Donald Trump and measures…

Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show…

This paper examines how trade policy uncertainty influences the correlation between U.S. stock indices and short-term government bonds. The objective is to assess whether policy-related shocks, especially those linked to trade tensions,…

We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7 to 2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break…

Extreme political shocks may reshape economies not only through contemporaneous disruption but by altering beliefs about the distribution of future states. We study how such belief ruptures affect the cost of capital, expectations, and…

When analyzing the components influencing the stock prices, it is commonly believed that economic activities play an important role. More specifically, asset prices are more sensitive to the systematic economic news that impose a pervasive…

Stock prices are driven by various factors. In particular, many individual investors who have relatively little financial knowledge rely heavily on the information from news stories when making investment decisions in the stock market.…

This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on European Parliament elections. We combine high-resolution climate data with results from parliamentary elections between 1989 and 2019, aggregated at the NUTS-2 regional level.…

As more and more data being created every day, all of it can help take better decisions with data analysis. It is not different from data generated in financial markets. Here we examine the process of how the global economy is affected by…

I investigate how political incentives affect the behavior of district attorneys (DAs). I develop a theoretical model that predicts DAs will increase sentencing intensity in an election period compared to the period prior. To empirically…

Labor unions influence economic outcomes not only through bargaining with employers over work contracts but also via political activities that can profoundly shape political systems. In unionized workplaces, they may mobilize and change the…