相关论文: Mitigating Financial Risk from Climate-Induced Agr…
Climate is an evolving complex system with dynamic interactions and non-linear feedback mechanisms, shaping environmental and socio-economic outcomes. Crop production is highly sensitive to climatic fluctuations (and many other…
Rural economies are largely dependent upon agriculture, which is greatly determined by climatic conditions such as rainfall. This study aims to forecast agricultural production in Maharashtra, India, which utilises annual data from the year…
We investigate the sources of variability in agricultural production and their relative importance in the context of weather index insurance for smallholder farmers in India. Using parcel-level panel data, multilevel modeling, and Bayesian…
The effects of weather on agriculture in recent years have become a major global concern. Hence, the need for an effective weather risk management tool (i.e., weather derivatives) that can hedge crop yields against weather uncertainties.…
50 year-long time series from a Long Term Agronomic Experiment have been used to to investigate the effects of climate change on yields of Wheat and Maize. Trends and fluctuations, useful to estimate production forecasts and related risks…
Accuracy of crop price forecasting techniques is important because it enables the supply chain planners and government bodies to take appropriate actions by estimating market factors such as demand and supply. In emerging economies such as…
Ensuring food security is a critical global challenge, particularly for low-income countries where food prices impact the access to nutritious food. The volatility of global agricultural commodity (AC) prices exacerbates food insecurity,…
This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…
Climate change poses significant challenges to the agricultural and financial sectors, affecting crop productivity and overall financial stability. This study evaluates the robustness of the Actuaries Climate Index$^{TM}$ (ACI), a newer…
In the Sahel region the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution…
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and…
The current international landscape is turbulent and unstable, with frequent outbreaks of geopolitical conflicts worldwide. Geopolitical risk has emerged as a significant threat to regional and global peace, stability, and economic…
Climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of drought events, with severe implications for food security. Unlike other natural disasters, droughts have a slow onset and depend on various external factors, making drought detection…
Climate change not only threatens agricultural producers but also strains related public agencies and financial institutions. These important food system actors include government entities tasked with insuring grower livelihoods and…
We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and…
Our study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on corn farming in Ontario under several warming scenarios at the 2068 horizon. It is articulated around a discrete-time dynamic model of corn farm income with an annual time-step,…
This technical report presents a stochastic model for pricing weather derivatives and devising hedging strategies tailored to Indian markets. We model temperature dynamics using a modified Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with jumps to account…
In recent years, the growing frequency and severity of natural disasters have increased the need for effective tools to manage catastrophe risk. Catastrophe (CAT) bonds allow the transfer of part of this risk to investors, offering an…
This paper seeks to develop a strategy based on analytics, for an individual Indian farmer to tackle market price fluctuations. The idea is to select a month (or a week or a day) on which to take the produce to market for a good return on…
We apply an empirical, data-driven approach for describing crop yield as a function of monthly temperature and precipitation by employing generative probabilistic models with parameters determined through Bayesian inference. Our approach is…