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The standard Kernel Quadrature method for numerical integration with random point sets (also called Bayesian Monte Carlo) is known to converge in root mean square error at a rate determined by the ratio $s/d$, where $s$ and $d$ encode the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-08-01 Francois-Xavier Briol , Chris J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , Wilson Ye Chen , Mark Girolami

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Youssef Marzouk , Yan Zhou

Standard Monte Carlo computation is widely known to exhibit a canonical square-root convergence speed in terms of sample size. Two recent techniques, one based on control variate and one on importance sampling, both derived from an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-03-13 Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

The need to calibrate increasingly complex statistical models requires a persistent effort for further advances on available, computationally intensive Monte Carlo methods. We study here an advanced version of familiar Markov Chain Monte…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-20 Alexandros Beskos , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Erik Pazos

This work introduces two Monte Carlo (MC)-based sampling methods, known as line sampling and subset simulation, to improve the performance of standard MC analyses in the context of asteroid impact risk assessment. Both techniques sample the…

地球与行星天体物理 · 物理学 2020-09-28 Matteo Romano , Matteo Losacco , Camilla Colombo , Pierluigi Di Lizia

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-02-07 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Raul Tempone , Yan Zhou

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-10-30 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

We propose and analyze a novel Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method for weak approximation of stochastic models that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients. The MIMC…

数值分析 · 数学 2015-03-26 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Fabio Nobile , Raul Tempone

We introduce a new micro-macro Markov chain Monte Carlo method (mM-MCMC) to sample invariant distributions of molecular dynamics systems that exhibit a time-scale separation between the microscopic (fast) dynamics, and the macroscopic…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-02-24 Hannes Vandecasteele , Giovanni Samaey

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions and is utilized across many fields and disciplines. Methods such as Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Hamiltonian…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-10-28 Lee Devlin , Paul Horridge , Peter L. Green , Simon Maskell

Discrepancies play an important role in the study of uniformity properties of point sets. Their probability distributions are a help in the analysis of the efficiency of the Quasi Monte Carlo method of numerical integration, which uses…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 A. F. W. van Hameren

Subgraph-wise sampling -- a promising class of mini-batch training techniques for graph neural networks (GNNs -- is critical for real-world applications. During the message passing (MP) in GNNs, subgraph-wise sampling methods discard…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-22 Jie Wang , Zhihao Shi , Xize Liang , Defu Lian , Shuiwang Ji , Bin Li , Enhong Chen , Feng Wu

Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

数值分析 · 数学 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-12-30 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a recently proposed particle-based Bayesian inference method, which has attracted a lot of interest due to its remarkable approximation ability and particle efficiency compared to traditional…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-06-11 Jingwei Zhuo , Chang Liu , Jiaxin Shi , Jun Zhu , Ning Chen , Bo Zhang

We propose a fast stochastic Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) method, for sampling from a smooth and strongly log-concave distribution. At the core of our proposed method is a variance reduction technique inspired by the recent advance in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-20 Difan Zou , Pan Xu , Quanquan Gu

Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-28 Paul Fearnhead , Sebastiano Grazzi , Chris Nemeth , Gareth O. Roberts

This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-12-02 Zhijian He , Shifeng Huo , Tianhui Yang

Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) is an iterative algorithm used to generate samples from a distribution that is known only up to a normalizing constant. The nonasymptotic dependence of its mixing time on the dimension and target accuracy is…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a methodology for sampling approximately from a sequence of probability distributions of increasing dimension and estimating their normalizing constants. We propose here an alternative methodology named…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-11-13 Anthony Brockwell , Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet