相关论文: European supercell thunderstorms -- an underestima…

Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonly linked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsible for the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds are typically…

Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that rigorous and holistic quantification of the…

Tornadoes are severe weather phenomena characterized by a violently rotating column of air connecting the ground to a parent storm. Within the United States, hundreds of tornadoes occur every year. Despite this, the dynamics of tornado…

The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…

Lightning flashes are rare albeit hazardous events. Despite this scarcity, generalized additive models (GAMs) succeed in producing a climatology of lightning occurrence for the eastern Alps and surrounding lowlands at an unprecedented…

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…

This study investigates lightning at tall objects and evaluates the risk of upward lightning (UL) over the eastern Alps and its surrounding areas. While uncommon, UL poses a threat, especially to wind turbines, as the long-duration current…

Supercells, characterized by their deep, persistent mesocyclones, are among the most severe convective weather systems, often associated with large hail, damaging winds, and significant societal impacts. Accurately simulating these events…

Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…

The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…

The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…

The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…

Understanding convective processes leading to severe weather hazards within Mediterranean cyclones is relevant for operational forecasters, insurance industry, and enhancing societal preparedness. In this work we examine the climatological…

Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard…

Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…

Windstorms significantly impact the UK, causing extensive damage to property, disrupting society, and potentially resulting in loss of life. Accurate modelling and understanding of such events are essential for effective risk assessment and…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…