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In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Distributional treatment effects can be invisible to means: a treatment may preserve average outcomes while changing tails, modes, dispersion, or rare-event probabilities. Kernel tests can detect discrepancies between interventional outcome…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-11 Houssam Zenati , Arthur Gretton

We consider the conditional treatment effect for competing risks data in observational studies. While it is described as a constant difference between the hazard functions given the covariates, we do not assume specific functional forms for…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-12-28 Denise Rava , Ronghui Xu

Randomized trials are widely considered as the gold standard for evaluating the effects of decision policies. Trial data is, however, drawn from a population which may differ from the intended target population and this raises a problem of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-30 Sofia Ek , Dave Zachariah

While the gold standard for clinical trials is to blind all parties -- participants, researchers, and evaluators -- to treatment assignment, this is not always a possibility. When some or all of the above individuals know the treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-22 E. J. Greene , P. Peduzzi , J. Dziura , C. Meng , M. E. Miller , T. G. Travison , D. Esserman

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

In both observational studies and randomized trials, post-treatment events such as dropout, nonadherence, and truncation by death occur frequently. In some studies, conditioning on post-treatment variables is a deliberate strategy to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-24 Marco Piccininni , Mats J. Stensrud

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Missing outcome data is one of the principal threats to the validity of treatment effect estimates from randomized trials. The outcome distributions of participants with missing and observed data are often different, which increases the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-04-06 Iván Díaz , Mark J. van der Laan

To estimate direct and indirect effects of an exposure on an outcome from observed data strong assumptions about unconfoundedness are required. Since these assumptions cannot be tested using the observed data, a mediation analysis should…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-03-29 Anita Lindmark , Xavier de Luna , Marie Eriksson

We propose a test-based elastic integrative analysis of the randomized trial and real-world data to estimate treatment effect heterogeneity with a vector of known effect modifiers. When the real-world data are not subject to bias, our…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-30 Shu Yang , Chenyin Gao , Donglin Zeng , Xiaofei Wang

Suppose one is interested in estimating causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding with the aid of a valid instrumental variable. This paper investigates the problem of making inferences about the average treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-15 BaoLuo Sun , Wang Miao

Often in follow-up studies intermediate events occur in some patients, such as reinterventions or adverse events. These intermediate events directly affect the shapes of their longitudinal profiles. Our work is motivated by two studies in…

In biomedical studies, estimating drug effects on chronic diseases requires a long follow-up period, which is difficult to meet in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). The use of a short-term surrogate to replace the long-term outcome for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-27 Wenjie Hu , Xiaohua Zhou , Peng Wu

In causal inference confounding may be controlled either through regression adjustment in an outcome model, or through propensity score adjustment or inverse probability of treatment weighting, or both. The latter approaches, which are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-17 Olli Saarela , Léo R. Belzile , David A. Stephens

In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-25 Zhaonan Qu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Jizhou Liu , Guido Imbens

Doubly robust learning offers a robust framework for causal inference from observational data by integrating propensity score and outcome modeling. Despite its theoretical appeal, practical adoption remains limited due to perceived…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-07-09 Hlynur Davíð Hlynsson

Causal inference relies on the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal estimates. Among sensitivity analysis methods proposed in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-12 Yushu Zou , Liangyuan Hu , Amanda Ricciuto , Mark Deneau , Kuan Liu

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects when both experimental and observational data are available. Since the long-term outcome is observed only after a long delay, it is not measured in the experimental…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-04 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Yuhao Wang
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