中文
相关论文

相关论文: Black Box Causal Inference: Effect Estimation via …

200 篇论文

Causal inference is fundamental across scientific disciplines, yet existing methods struggle to capture instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems. In this paper, assimilative causal inference…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-23 Marios Andreou , Nan Chen , Erik Bollt

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such,…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2020-12-21 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Xing Yan , Qi Wu , Nanbo Peng , Dongdong Wang , Zhixiang Huang

Causal inference identifies cause-and-effect relationships between variables. While traditional approaches rely on data to reveal causal links, a recently developed method, assimilative causal inference (ACI), integrates observations with…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-28 Marios Andreou , Nan Chen

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge for estimating causal effects. To address unobserved confounding, recent literature has turned to two different approaches -- proxy variables and the use of multiple treatments. The first…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-20 Aytijhya Saha , Stephen Bates , Devavrat Shah

Machine Learning and AI have the potential to transform data-driven scientific discovery, enabling accurate predictions for several scientific phenomena. As many scientific questions are inherently causal, this paper looks at the causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-11 Riccardo Cadei , Lukas Lindorfer , Sylvia Cremer , Cordelia Schmid , Francesco Locatello

We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable. Several methods (such as…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2023-06-13 Yaroslav Kivva , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

Although the widespread use of AI systems in today's world is growing, many current AI systems are found vulnerable due to hidden bias and missing information, especially in the most commonly used forecasting system. In this work, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-30 Zhixuan Chu , Hui Ding , Guang Zeng , Shiyu Wang , Yiming Li

Identifying covariates that modify treatment effects is a central problem in causal inference. Yet existing data-adaptive procedures do not provide finite-sample control over the expected number of false discoveries, risking spurious…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Omar Melikechi

Adjusting for confounding and imbalance when establishing statistical relationships is an increasingly important task, and causal inference methods have emerged as the most popular tool to achieve this. Causal inference has been developed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-20 Daisuke Kurisu , Yidong Zhou , Taisuke Otsu , Hans-Georg Müller

Most major retailers today have multiple divisions focused on various aspects, such as marketing, supply chain, online customer experience, store customer experience, employee productivity, and vendor fulfillment. They also regularly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-16 Pranav Gupta , Nithin Surendran

The fundamental challenge in causal induction is to infer the underlying graph structure given observational and/or interventional data. Most existing causal induction algorithms operate by generating candidate graphs and evaluating them…

Entity bias widely affects pretrained (large) language models, causing them to rely on (biased) parametric knowledge to make unfaithful predictions. Although causality-inspired methods have shown great potential to mitigate entity bias, it…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-10-30 Fei Wang , Wenjie Mo , Yiwei Wang , Wenxuan Zhou , Muhao Chen

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

Causal decision making (CDM) based on machine learning has become a routine part of business. Businesses algorithmically target offers, incentives, and recommendations to affect consumer behavior. Recently, we have seen an acceleration of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-10-01 Carlos Fernández-Loría , Foster Provost

Deep learning algorithms have recently shown to be a successful tool in estimating parameters of statistical models for which simulation is easy, but likelihood computation is challenging. But the success of these approaches depends on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-20 Amanda Lenzi , Haavard Rue

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a challenging problem, especially with high dimensional data and in the presence of unobserved variables. The available data-driven methods for tackling the problem either provide an…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jiji Zhang , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-05-17 Uri Shalit , Fredrik D. Johansson , David Sontag

Proximal causal inference (PCI) has emerged as a promising framework for identifying and estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. While many traditional causal inference methods rely on the assumption of no…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-17 Grace V. Ringlein , Trang Quynh Nguyen , Peter P. Zandi , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Harsh Parikh