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Uncertainties surrounding the energy transition often lead modelers to present large sets of scenarios that are challenging for policymakers to interpret and act upon. An alternative approach is to define a few qualitative storylines from…

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanism arising from multi-agent interactions) and…

Recent events, including the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and climate change impacts, have exposed the critical need to ensure energy security and resilience in energy systems. We review existing definitions…

Climate policy modelling is a key tool for assessing mitigation strategies in complex systems, where uncertainty is inherent and unavoidable. We present a general methodology for extensive uncertainty analysis in this field. While other…

Extreme events gain the attention of researchers due to their utmost importance in various contexts ranging from finance to climatology. This brings such recurrent events to the limelight of attention in interdisciplinary research. A…

As variable renewable energy sources increasingly gain importance in global energy systems, there is a growing interest in understanding periods of variable renewable energy shortage ("Dunkelflauten"). Defining, quantifying, and comparing…

The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…

Increasing the adoption of alternative technologies is vital to ensure a successful transition to net-zero emissions in the manufacturing sector. Yet there is no model to analyse technology adoption and the impact of policy interventions in…

The socioeconomic impact of pollution naturally comes with uncertainty due to, e.g., current new technological developments in emissions' abatement or demographic changes. On top of that, the trend of the future costs of the environmental…

The energy transition potentially poses an existential risk for major international oil companies (IOCs) if they fail to adapt to low-carbon business models. Projections of energy futures, however, are met with diverging assumptions on its…

When developing autonomous systems, engineers and other stakeholders make great effort to prepare the system for all foreseeable events and conditions. However, these systems are still bound to encounter events and conditions that were not…

To meet widely recognised carbon neutrality targets, over the last decade metropolitan regions around the world have implemented policies to promote the generation and use of sustainable energy. Nevertheless, there is an availability gap in…

We consider the problem of look-ahead economic dispatch (LAED) with uncertain renewable energy generation. The goal of this problem is to minimize the cost of conventional energy generation subject to uncertain operational constraints. The…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond…

Future energy systems are subject to various uncertain influences. As resilient systems they should maintain a constantly high operational performance whatever happens. We explore different levels and time scales of decision making in…

In highly renewable power systems the increased weather dependence can result in new resilience challenges, such as renewable energy droughts, or a lack of sufficient renewable generation at times of high demand. The weather conditions…

Capacity expansion models used for policy support have increasingly represented both the variability and uncertainty of weather-dependent generation (wind and solar). However, although also uncertain, as demonstrated by the performance of…

The expansion of wind and solar power is driving the European energy system transformation, thereby also driving our reliance on this weather-dependent resources. Integrating renewable scarcity events into long-term planning has therefore…

The introduction of more renewable energy sources into the energy system increases the variability and weather dependence of electricity generation. Power system simulations are used to assess the adequacy and reliability of the electricity…