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Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

In statistical learning, a dataset is often partitioned into two parts: the training set and the holdout (i.e., testing) set. For instance, the training set is used to learn a predictor, and then the holdout set is used for estimating the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-11-05 Jun Zhao

Mutual information (MI) is a fundamental measure of statistical dependence between two variables, yet accurate estimation from finite data remains notoriously difficult. No estimator is universally reliable, and common approaches fail in…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2025-10-02 Eslam Abdelaleem , K. Michael Martini , Ilya Nemenman

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-07 Athénaïs Gautier , David Ginsbourger , Guillaume Pirot

We consider the problem of designing almost optimal predictors for dynamical systems from a finite sequence of noisy observations and incomplete knowledge of the dynamics and the noise. We first discuss the properties of the optimal (Bayes)…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2007-07-30 Marian Anghel , Ingo Steinwart

Modern variable selection procedures make use of penalization methods to execute simultaneous model selection and estimation. A popular method is the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), the use of which requires…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-12 Meadhbh O'Neill , Kevin Burke

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-30 Jonas Arruda , Niels Bracher , Ullrich Köthe , Jan Hasenauer , Stefan T. Radev

We study a discrete denoising diffusion framework that integrates a sample-efficient estimator of single-site conditionals with round-robin noising and denoising dynamics for generative modeling over discrete state spaces. Rather than…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-02 Karthik Elamvazhuthi , Abhijith Jayakumar , Andrey Y. Lokhov

Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex and large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-14 Roy Shivam Ram Shreshtth , Arnab Hazra , Gourab Mukherjee

Lossy compression and clustering fundamentally involve a decision about what features are relevant and which are not. The information bottleneck method (IB) by Tishby, Pereira, and Bialek formalized this notion as an information-theoretic…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2017-02-23 DJ Strouse , David J Schwab

Recently, there has been a surge in methodological development for the difference-in-differences (DiD) approach to evaluate causal effects. Standard methods in the literature rely on the parallel trends assumption to identify the average…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-17 Pan Zhao , Yifan Cui

In genomics, differential abundance and expression analyses are complicated by the compositional nature of sequence count data, which reflect only relative-not absolute-abundances or expression levels. Many existing methods attempt to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Won Gu , Francesca Chiaromonte , Justin D. Silverman

The No Unmeasured Confounding Assumption is widely used to identify causal effects in observational studies. Recent work on proximal inference has provided alternative identification results that succeed even in the presence of unobserved…

We propose a modification of the improved cross entropy (iCE) method to enhance its performance for network reliability assessment. The iCE method performs a transition from the nominal density to the optimal importance sampling (IS)…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-11-18 Jianpeng Chan , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

Basket trials are increasingly used for the simultaneous evaluation of a new treatment in various patient subgroups under one overarching protocol. We propose a Bayesian approach to sample size determination in basket trials that permit…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-02 Haiyan Zheng , Michael J. Grayling , Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki , James M. S. Wason

In mathematical reasoning, data selection strategies predominantly rely on static, externally defined metrics, which fail to adapt to the evolving capabilities of models during training. This misalignment limits the efficiency of Supervised…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-04-20 Jun Rao , Xuebo Liu , Hexuan Deng , Zepeng Lin , Zixiong Yu , Jiansheng Wei , Xiaojun Meng , Min Zhang

This paper develops a semiparametric Bayesian instrumental variable analysis method for estimating the causal effect of an endogenous variable when dealing with unobserved confounders and measurement errors with partly interval-censored…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-28 Elvis Han Cui , Xuyang Lu , Jin Zhou , Hua Zhou , Gang Li

In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime. We will focus on the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-10-30 Youngsoo Baek , Samuel I. Berchuck , Sayan Mukherjee

Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Carol A. C. Flannagan , Brady T. West , Michael R. Elliott

This paper studies distributed binary test of statistical independence under communication (information bits) constraints. While testing independence is very relevant in various applications, distributed independence test is particularly…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-11-29 Sebastian Espinosa , Jorge F. Silva , Pablo Piantanida