相关论文: Wisdom of the Crowds in Forecasting: Forecast Summ…

Future event prediction (FEP) is a long-standing and crucial task in the world, as understanding the evolution of events enables early risk identification, informed decision-making, and strategic planning. Existing work typically treats…

Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the…

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse, rapidly changing, or unavailable, statistical models may not be able to…

Crowd predictions have demonstrated powerful performance in predicting future events. We aim to understand crowd prediction efficacy in ascertaining the veracity of human emotional expressions. We discover that collective discernment can…

In a crowd forecasting system, aggregation is an algorithm that returns aggregated probabilities for each question based on the probabilities provided per question by each individual in the crowd. Various aggregation methods have been…

Predicting the behavior of crowds in complex environments is a key requirement in a multitude of application areas, including crowd and disaster management, architectural design, and urban planning. Given a crowd's immediate state, current…

Prediction over event sequences is critical for many real-world applications in Information Retrieval and Natural Language Processing. Future Event Generation (FEG) is a challenging task in event sequence prediction because it requires not…

This paper describes prediction methods for the number of future events from a population of units associated with an on-going time-to-event process. Examples include the prediction of warranty returns and the prediction of the number of…

In emergency management for mass gathering, the knowledge about crowd types can highly assist with providing timely response and effective resource allocation. Crowd monitoring can be achieved using computer vision based approaches and…

Forecasting human activities observed in videos is a long-standing challenge in computer vision, which leads to various real-world applications such as mobile robots, autonomous driving, and assistive systems. In this work, we present a new…

There are many examples of 'wisdom of the crowd' effects in which the large number of participants imparts confidence in the collective judgment of the crowd. But how do we form an aggregated judgment when the size of the crowd is limited?…

Complex Event Recognition (CER) systems have become popular in the past two decades due to their ability to "instantly" detect patterns on real-time streams of events. However, there is a lack of methods for forecasting when a pattern might…

Predicting student success or failure is vital for timely interventions and personalized support. Early failure prediction is particularly crucial, yet limited data availability in the early stages poses challenges, one of the possible…

Crowdsourcing enables the solicitation of forecasts on a variety of prediction tasks from distributed groups of people. How to aggregate the solicited forecasts, which may vary in quality, into an accurate final prediction remains a…

Long-horizon events forecasting is a crucial task across various domains, including retail, finance, healthcare, and social networks. Traditional models for event sequences often extend to forecasting on a horizon using an autoregressive…

Events are occurrences in specific locations, time, and semantics that nontrivially impact either our society or the nature, such as civil unrest, system failures, and epidemics. It is highly desirable to be able to anticipate the…

Population-level societal events, such as civil unrest and crime, often have a significant impact on our daily life. Forecasting such events is of great importance for decision-making and resource allocation. Event prediction has…

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

The interest in the wisdom of crowds stems mainly from the possibility of combining independent forecasts from experts in the hope that many expert minds are better than a few. Hence the relevant subject of study nowadays is the Vox…

Research in neural networks in the field of computer vision has achieved remarkable accuracy for point estimation. However, the uncertainty in the estimation is rarely addressed. Uncertainty quantification accompanied by point estimation…