相关论文: Decision Theoretic Foundations for Conformal Predi…

We consider a Markov decision process subject to model uncertainty in a Bayesian framework, where we assume that the state process is observed but its law is unknown to the observer. In addition, while the state process and the controls are…

Conformal methods provide prediction sets for outcomes with confidence guarantees. We study their use in a selective inference setting, where inference is performed only when the prediction set is informative. The analyst may consider as…

Online decision-makers often obtain predictions on future variables, such as arrivals, demands, inventories, and so on. These predictions can be generated from simple forecasting algorithms for univariate time-series, all the way to…

Constructing uncertainty sets as unions of multiple subsets has emerged as an effective approach for creating compact and flexible uncertainty representations in data-driven robust optimization (RO). This paper focuses on two separate…

Safety assurance is critical in the planning and control of robotic systems. For robots operating in the real world, the safety-critical design often needs to explicitly address uncertainties and the pre-computed guarantees often rely on…

While autonomous agents often surpass humans in their ability to handle vast and complex data, their potential misalignment (i.e., lack of transparency regarding their true objective) has thus far hindered their use in critical applications…

In many real-world applications, a model provider provides probabilistic forecasts to downstream decision-makers who use them to make decisions under diverse payoff objectives. The provider may have access to multiple predictive models,…

In this paper, we consider one aspect of the problem of applying decision theory to the design of agents that learn how to make decisions under uncertainty. This aspect concerns how an agent can estimate probabilities for the possible…

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Beyond assigning the correct class, an activity recognition model should also be able to determine, how certain it is in its predictions. We present the first study of how welthe confidence values of modern action recognition architectures…

Predicting query execution time is a fundamental issue underlying many database management tasks. Existing predictors rely on information such as cardinality estimates and system performance constants that are difficult to know exactly. As…

A perfectly rational decision-maker chooses the best action with the highest utility gain from a set of possible actions. The optimality principles that describe such decision processes do not take into account the computational costs of…

Risk measures, which typically evaluate the impact of extreme losses, are highly sensitive to misspecification in the tails. This paper studies a robust optimization approach to combat tail uncertainty by proposing a unifying framework to…

Data following an interval structure are increasingly prevalent in many scientific applications. In medicine, clinical events are often monitored between two clinical visits, making the exact time of the event unknown and generating…

An unconventional approach for optimal stopping under model ambiguity is introduced. Besides ambiguity itself, we take into account how ambiguity-averse an agent is. This inclusion of ambiguity attitude, via an $\alpha$-maxmin nonlinear…

When deploying deep neural networks on robots or other physical systems, the learned model should reliably quantify predictive uncertainty. A reliable uncertainty allows downstream modules to reason about the safety of its actions. In this…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account…

This paper deals with the problem of formulating an adaptive Model Predictive Control strategy for constrained uncertain systems. We consider a linear system, in presence of bounded time varying additive uncertainty. The uncertainty is…

Decision theory recognizes two principal approaches to solving problems under uncertainty: probabilistic models and cognitive heuristics. However, engineers, public planners and decision-makers in other fields seem to employ solution…

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…