相关论文: Empirical Power Analysis of a Statistical Test to …

Power-law distributions occur in many situations of scientific interest and have significant consequences for our understanding of natural and man-made phenomena. Unfortunately, the detection and characterization of power laws is…

We explore the Declination, a new metric intended to detect partisan gerrymandering. We consider instances in which each district has equal turnout, the maximum turnout to minimum turnout is bounded, and turnout is unrestricted. For each of…

Granular geographic data present new opportunities to understand how neighborhoods are formed, and how they influence politics. At the same time, the inherent subjectivity of neighborhoods creates methodological challenges in measuring and…

Roughly speaking, gerrymandering is the systematic manipulation of the boundaries of electoral districts to make a specific (political) party win as many districts as possible. While typically studied from a geographical point of view,…

Suppose a researcher observes individuals within a county within a state. Given concerns about correlation across individuals, it is common to group observations into clusters and conduct inference treating observations across clusters as…

We propose randomization tests of whether forecast 1 outperforms forecast 2 across a class of scoring functions. This hypothesis is of applied interest: While the prediction context often prescribes a certain class of scoring functions, it…

To audit political district maps for partisan gerrymandering, one may determine a baseline for the expected distribution of partisan outcomes by sampling an ensemble of maps. One approach to sampling is to use redistricting policy as a…

This paper is to obtain a simple dividing-diagram of the congressional districts, where the only limit is that each district should contain the same population if possibly. In order to solve this problem, we introduce three different…

In observational studies of discrimination, the most common statistical approaches consider either the rate at which decisions are made (benchmark tests) or the success rate of those decisions (outcome tests). Both tests, however, have…

While running any experiment, we often have to consider the statistical power to ensure an effective study. Statistical power or power ensures that we can observe an effect with high probability if such a true effect exists. However,…

The statistical evidence (or marginal likelihood) is a key quantity in Bayesian statistics, allowing one to assess the probability of the data given the model under investigation. This paper focuses on refining the power posterior approach…

Since the middle of the 1940's scientists have used Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to obtain information about physical processes. This has proved a accurate and and reliable method to obtain this information. Through out resent years…

There is growing evidence of systematic attempts to influence democratic elections by controlled and digitally organized dissemination of fake news. This raises the question of the intrinsic robustness of democratic electoral processes…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a sampling-based method for estimating features of probability distributions. MCMC methods produce a serially correlated, yet representative, sample from the desired distribution. As such it can be…

Switching from one electoral system to another one is frequently criticized by the opposition and is viewed as a means for the ruling party to stay in power. In particular, when the new electoral system is a parallel voting (or a…

We investigate a generalized empirical likelihood approach in a two-group setting where the constraints on parameters have a form of U-statistics. In this situation, the summands that consist of the constraints for the empirical likelihood…

Forecasting elections -- a challenging, high-stakes problem -- is the subject of much uncertainty, subjectivity, and media scrutiny. To shed light on this process, we develop a method for forecasting elections from the perspective of…

Traditional hypothesis tests for differences between binomial proportions are at risk of being too liberal (Wald test) or overly conservative (Fisher's exact test). This problem is exacerbated in small samples. Regulators favour exact…

Given an undirected graph G, the effective resistance r(s,t) measures the dissimilarity of node pair s,t in G, which finds numerous applications in real-world problems, such as recommender systems, combinatorial optimization, molecular…

In this paper some new proposals for method comparison are presented. On the one hand, two new robust regressions, the M-Deming and the MM-Deming, have been developed by modifying Linnet's method of the weighted Deming regression. The…