相关论文: From Correlation to Causation: Understanding Clima…

Robust generalization under climate change remains a major challenge for machine learning applications in climate science. Most existing approaches struggle to extrapolate beyond the climate they were trained on, leading to a strong…

Industrial operations have grown exponentially over the last century, driving advancements in energy utilization through vehicles and machinery.This growth has significant environmental implications, necessitating the use of sophisticated…

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a…

Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…

Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…

Accurate trajectory prediction has long been a major challenge for autonomous driving (AD). Traditional data-driven models predominantly rely on statistical correlations, often overlooking the causal relationships that govern traffic…

We developed a coupled social-climate network model to understand the interaction between climate change opinion spread and the climate system and determine the role of this interaction in shaping collective actions and global temperature…

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to…

Climate models play a critical role in understanding and projecting climate change. Due to their complexity, their horizontal resolution of about 40-100 km remains too coarse to resolve processes such as clouds and convection, which need to…

Climate science is critical for understanding both the causes and consequences of changes in global temperatures and has become imperative for decisive policy-making. However, climate science studies commonly require addressing complex…

Causal discovery traditionally relies on statistical methods applied to observational data, often requiring large datasets and assumptions about underlying causal structures. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have…

Climate change poses an existential threat, necessitating effective climate policies to enact impactful change. Decisions in this domain are incredibly complex, involving conflicting entities and evidence. In the last decades, policymakers…

The machine learning community has recently devoted much attention to the problem of inferring causal relationships from statistical data. Most of this work has focused on uncovering connections among scalar random variables. We generalize…

We interpret the predictions of any black-box structured input-structured output model around a specific input-output pair. Our method returns an "explanation" consisting of groups of input-output tokens that are causally related. These…

Throughout its lifecycle, a large language model (LLM) generates a substantially larger carbon footprint during inference than training. LLM inference requests vary in batch size, prompt length, and token generation number, while cloud…

In many scientific disciplines, coarse-grained causal models are used to explain and predict the dynamics of more fine-grained systems. Naturally, such models require appropriate macrovariables. Automated procedures to detect suitable…

Causal structure learning with data from multiple contexts carries both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities arise from considering shared and context-specific causal graphs enabling to generalize and transfer causal knowledge across…

We describe a new approach allowing for systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events, in near-real time. The method is purposely designed to facilitate its implementation at meteorological centers by relying on data…

Causal structure discovery methods are commonly applied to structured data where the causal variables are known and where statistical testing can be used to assess the causal relationships. By contrast, recovering a causal structure from…

Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions.…