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Arrow's Theorem concerns a fundamental problem in social choice theory: given the individual preferences of members of a group, how can they be aggregated to form rational group preferences? Arrow showed that in an election between three or…

概率论 · 数学 2021-09-27 Frederic Koehler , Elchanan Mossel

The wisdom of crowds is an umbrella term for phenomena suggesting that the collective judgment or decision of a large group can be more accurate than the individual judgments or decisions of the group members. A well-known example…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-06-24 Giacomo Como , Fabio Fagnani , Anton Proskurnikov

Condorcet's Jury Theorem has been invoked for ensemble classifiers to indicate that the combination of many classifiers can have better predictive performance than a single classifier. Such a theoretical underpinning is unknown for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-10-11 Brijnesh J. Jain

Crowds can often make better decisions than individuals or small groups of experts by leveraging their ability to aggregate diverse information. Question answering sites, such as Stack Exchange, rely on the "wisdom of crowds" effect to…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2017-04-04 Keith Burghardt , Emanuel F. Alsina , Michelle Girvan , William Rand , Kristina Lerman

Weighted Majority Voting (WMV) is a well-known optimal decision rule for collective decision making, given the probability of sources to provide accurate information (trustworthiness). However, in reality, the trustworthiness is not a known…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-07-02 Shaojie Bai , Dongxia Wang , Tim Muller , Peng Cheng , Jiming Chen

In many real world situations, collective decisions are made using voting. Moreover, scenarios such as committee or board elections require voting rules that return multiple winners. In multi-winner approval voting (AV), an agent may vote…

计算机科学与博弈论 · 计算机科学 2019-05-31 Jaelle Scheuerman , Jason L. Harman , Nicholas Mattei , K. Brent Venable

Decades of research suggest that information exchange in groups and organizations can reliably improve judgment accuracy in tasks such as financial forecasting, market research, and medical decision-making. However, we show that improving…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2021-04-26 Joshua Becker , Douglas Guilbeault , Ned Smith

Condorcet's jury theorem states that the correct outcome is reached in direct majority voting systems with sufficiently large electorates as long as each voter's independent probability of voting for that outcome is greater than 0.5. Yet,…

组合数学 · 数学 2023-01-10 Lucas Böttcher , Georgia Kernell

Crowdsourcing is becoming increasingly important in entity resolution tasks due to their inherent complexity such as clustering of images and natural language processing. Humans can provide more insightful information for these difficult…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2017-08-28 Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi , Xiangyu Ke , Arijit Khan

Machine learning algorithms use error function minimization to fit a large set of parameters in a preexisting model. However, error minimization eventually leads to a memorization of the training dataset, losing the ability to generalize to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-03-16 Fernando Martin-Maroto , Gonzalo G. de Polavieja

In his "ship of state" allegory (\textit{Republic}, Book VI, 488) Plato poses a question -- how can a crew of sailors presumed to know little about the art of navigation recognize the true pilot among them? The allegory argues that a simple…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-12-12 Andrés Corrada-Emmanuel

We consider the $M$-ary classification problem via crowdsourcing, where crowd workers respond to simple binary questions and the answers are aggregated via decision fusion. The workers have a reject option to skip answering a question when…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2020-08-26 Baocheng Geng , Qunwei Li , Pramod K. Varshney

The interest in the wisdom of crowds stems mainly from the possibility of combining independent forecasts from experts in the hope that many expert minds are better than a few. Hence the relevant subject of study nowadays is the Vox…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2023-01-20 Nilton S. Siqueira Neto , José F. Fontanari

With the increased interest in machine learning and big data problems, the need for large amounts of labelled data has also grown. However, it is often infeasible to get experts to label all of this data, which leads many practitioners to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-31 Pierce Burke , Richard Klein

This paper presents some fundamental collective choice theory for information system designers, particularly those working in the field of computer-supported cooperative work. This paper is focused on a presentation of Arrow's Possibility…

多智能体系统 · 计算机科学 2007-05-23 Walter Eaves

The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the wisdom of crowds, has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2017-11-20 Joaquin Navajas , Tamara Niella , Gerry Garbulsky , Bahador Bahrami , Mariano Sigman

Despite huge advances, LLMs still lack convenient and reliable methods to quantify the uncertainty in their responses, making them difficult to trust in high-stakes applications. One of the simplest approaches to eliciting more accurate…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-10-07 Aparna Nair-Kanneganti , Trevor J. Chan , Shir Goldfinger , Emily Mackay , Brian Anthony , Alison Pouch

We consider a voting model, where a number of candidates need to be selected subject to certain feasibility constraints. The model generalises committee elections (where there is a single constraint on the number of candidates that need to…

计算机科学与博弈论 · 计算机科学 2025-09-24 Tomáš Masařík , Grzegorz Pierczyński , Piotr Skowron

We study the ability of a social media platform with a political agenda to influence voting outcomes. Our benchmark is Condorcet's jury theorem, which states that the likelihood of a correct decision under majority voting increases with the…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2022-06-30 Ronen Gradwohl , Yuval Heller , Arye Hillman

Crowdsourcing systems aggregate decisions of many people to help users quickly identify high-quality options, such as the best answers to questions or interesting news stories. A long-standing issue in crowdsourcing is how option quality…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2020-10-28 Keith Burghardt , Tad Hogg , Raissa M. D'Souza , Kristina Lerman , Marton Posfai