相关论文: A Comprehensive Forecasting Framework based on Mul…

A novel framework for hierarchical forecast updating is presented, addressing a critical gap in the forecasting literature. By assuming a temporal hierarchy structure, the innovative approach extends hierarchical forecast reconciliation to…

This paper focuses on forecasting hierarchical time-series data, where each higher-level observation equals the sum of its corresponding lower-level time series. In such contexts, the forecast values should be coherent, meaning that the…

Hierarchical forecasting with reconciliation requires forecasting values of a hierarchy (e.g.~customer demand in a state and district), such that forecast values are linked (e.g.~ district forecasts should add up to the state forecast).…

Hierarchical forecasting methods have been widely used to support aligned decision-making by providing coherent forecasts at different aggregation levels. Traditional hierarchical forecasting approaches, such as the bottom-up and top-down…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

Demand forecasting in competitive, uncertain business environments requires models that can integrate multiple evaluation perspectives rather than being restricted to hyperparameter optimization based on a single metric. This traditional…

Hierarchical forecasting is a key problem in many practical multivariate forecasting applications - the goal is to simultaneously predict a large number of correlated time series that are arranged in a pre-specified aggregation hierarchy.…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts…

We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…

Hierarchical time series demands exist in many industries and are often associated with the product, time frame, or geographic aggregations. Traditionally, these hierarchies have been forecasted using top-down, bottom-up, or middle-out…

Time series often appear in an additive hierarchical structure. In such cases, time series on higher levels are the sums of their subordinate time series. This hierarchical structure places a natural constraint on forecasts. However,…

In numerous applications, it is required to produce forecasts for multiple time-series at different hierarchy levels. An obvious example is given by the supply chain in which demand forecasting may be needed at a store, city, or country…

This paper discusses the prediction of hierarchical time series, where each upper-level time series is calculated by summing appropriate lower-level time series. Forecasts for such hierarchical time series should be coherent, meaning that…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS)…

Existing hierarchical forecasting techniques scale poorly when the number of time series increases. We propose to learn a coherent forecast for millions of time series with a single bottom-level forecast model by using a sparse loss…

Hierarchical time-series forecasting (HTSF) is an important problem for many real-world business applications where the goal is to simultaneously forecast multiple time-series that are related to each other via a hierarchical relation.…

Platform businesses operate on a digital core and their decision making requires high-dimensional accurate forecast streams at different levels of cross-sectional (e.g., geographical regions) and temporal aggregation (e.g., minutes to…

Optimal decision-making compels us to anticipate the future at different horizons. However, in many domains connecting together predictions from multiple time horizons and abstractions levels across their organization becomes all the more…

Model selection has been proven an effective strategy for improving accuracy in time series forecasting applications. However, when dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from selecting the most appropriate forecasting model,…

When forecasting time series with a hierarchical structure, the existing state of the art is to forecast each time series independently, and, in a post-treatment step, to reconcile the time series in a way that respects the hierarchy…