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Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often include subgroup analyses to assess whether treatment effects vary across pre-specified patient populations. However, these analyses frequently suffer from small sample sizes which limit the power…

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

Important questions for impact evaluation require knowledge not only of average effects, but of the distribution of treatment effects. The inability to observe individual counterfactuals makes answering these empirical questions…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-25 Bruno Fava

Many proposals for the identification of causal effects require an instrumental variable that satisfies strong, untestable unconfoundedness and exclusion restriction assumptions. In this paper, we show how one can potentially identify…

We consider the problem of estimating personalized treatment policies that are "externally valid" or "generalizable": they perform well in target populations that differ from the experimental (or training) population from which the data are…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-10 Christopher Adjaho , Timothy Christensen

When the distribution of treatment effect modifiers differs between the trial sample and target population, inverse probability weighting (IPSW) can be applied to achieve an unbiased estimate of the population average treatment effect in…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-03-04 Albee Y. Ling , Maria E. Montez-Rath , Kris Kapphahn , Manisha Desai

We study variants of the average treatment effect on the treated with population parameters replaced by their sample counterparts. For each estimand, we derive the limiting distribution with respect to a semiparametric efficient estimator…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-12 Andrew Yiu

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. Trial findings are often used to inform policy and programming efforts, yet their results may not generalize well to a relevant target population due to…

Missing data is unavoidable in longitudinal clinical trials, and outcomes are not always normally distributed. In the presence of outliers or heavy-tailed distributions, the conventional multiple imputation with the mixed model with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-22 Siyi Liu , Yilong Zhang , Gregory T Golm , Guanghan , Liu , Shu Yang

When examining a contrast between two interventions, longitudinal causal inference studies frequently encounter positivity violations when one or both regimes are impossible to observe for some subjects. Existing weighting methods either…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-11 Alec McClean , Iván Díaz

We investigate the task of estimating the conditional average causal effect of treatment-dosage pairs from a combination of observational data and assumptions on the causal relationships in the underlying system. This has been a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-31 Alexis Bellot , Anish Dhir , Giulia Prando

We seek to understand the probability an individual benefits from treatment (PIBT), an inestimable quantity that must be bounded in practice. Given the innate uncertainty in the population-level bounds on PIBT, we seek to better understand…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-04 Gabriel Ruiz , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Methods for extending -- generalizing or transporting -- inferences from a randomized trial to a target population involve conditioning on a large set of covariates that is sufficient for rendering the randomized and non-randomized groups…

Parameters of sub-populations can be more relevant than super-population ones. For example, a healthcare provider may be interested in the effect of a treatment plan for a specific subset of their patients; policymakers may be concerned…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-22 Ying Jin , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

Comparative effectiveness evidence from randomized trials may not be directly generalizable to a target population of substantive interest when, as in most cases, trial participants are not randomly sampled from the target population.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-12 Fan Li , Ashley L. Buchanan , Stephen R. Cole

This article considers causal inference for treatment contrasts from a randomized experiment using potential outcomes in a finite population setting. Adopting a Neymanian repeated sampling approach that integrates such causal inference with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-06-17 Rahul Mukerjee , Tirthankar Dasgupta , Donald B. Rubin

Omitted variable bias can affect treatment effect estimates obtained from observational data due to the lack of random assignment to treatment groups. Sensitivity analyses adjust these estimates to quantify the impact of potential omitted…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2010-11-10 Carrie A. Hosman , Ben B. Hansen , Paul W. Holland

Two key identifying assumptions used to justify difference-in-differences are parallel trends and no anticipation, yet both may fail in practice. I propose a class of assumptions on anticipation and derive closed-form, sharp bounds on the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-03-03 Gianna Fenaroli