相关论文: Can Generalized Extreme Value Model Fit the Real S…

Of theories for why large-scale machine learning models generalize despite being vastly overparameterized, which of their assumptions are needed to capture the qualitative phenomena of generalization in the real world? On one hand, we find…

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

According to the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook, in 2005, the number of traffic accidents was 187781 with total direct property losses of 103691.7 (10000 Yuan). This research aims to fill the gap in the literature by investigating the…

In this paper, we propose the multivariate range Value-at-Risk (MRVaR) and the multivariate range covariance (MRCov) as two risk measures and explore their desirable properties in risk management. In particular, we explain that such…

Operational risk capital estimation under Basel II/III requires quantifying aggregate losses at extreme confidence levels of 99.9% and beyond, yet the standard Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) assumes independence between loss frequency and…

Accurate prediction of traffic crash risks for individual vehicles is essential for enhancing vehicle safety. While significant attention has been given to traffic crash risk prediction, existing studies face two main challenges: First, due…

A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…

Modeling extreme precipitation and temperature is vital for understanding the impacts of climate change, as hazards like intense rainfall and record-breaking temperatures can result in severe consequences, including floods, droughts, and…

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

Periodic inspections are necessary to keep railroad tracks in state of good repair and prevent train accidents. Automatic track inspection using machine vision technology has become a very effective inspection tool. Because of its…

In the framework of Embedded Value new standards, namely the MCEV norms, the latest principles published in June 2008 address the issue of market and underwriting risks measurement by using stochastic models of projection and valorization.…

In many applications of time series models, such as climate analysis and social media analysis, we are often interested in extreme events, such as heatwave, wind gust, and burst of topics. These time series data usually exhibit a…

Under Solvency II, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is applied, although there is broad consensus that the Expected Shortfall (ES) constitutes a more appropriate risk measure. Moving towards ES would necessitate specifying the corresponding ES…

Observed accidents have been the main resource for road safety analysis over the past decades. Although such reliance seems quite straightforward, the rare nature of these events has made safety difficult to assess, especially for new and…

Explicit time integration for immersed finite element discretizations severely suffers from the influence of poorly cut elements. In this contribution, we propose a generalized eigenvalue stabilization (GEVS) strategy for the element mass…

This paper is concerned with optimizing the global minimum-variance portfolio's (GMVP) weights in high-dimensional settings where both observation and population dimensions grow at a bounded ratio. Optimizing the GMVP weights is highly…

For purposes of Value-at-Risk estimation, we consider several multivariate families of heavy-tailed distributions, which can be seen as multidimensional versions of Paretian stable and Student's t distributions allowing different marginals…

A proper channel modeling methodology that characterizes the statistics of extreme events is key in the design of a system at an ultra-reliable regime of operation. The strict constraint of ultra-reliability corresponds to the packet error…

This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…

We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…