相关论文: Nonstationary functional time series forecasting

We consider the problem of constructing nonparametric undirected graphical models for high-dimensional functional data. Most existing statistical methods in this context assume either a Gaussian distribution on the vertices or linear…

Accurate curve forecasting is of vital importance for policy planning, decision making and resource allocation in many engineering and industrial applications. In this paper we establish a theoretical foundation for the optimal short-term…

Long memory in the sense of slowly decaying autocorrelations is a stylized fact in many time series from economics and finance. The fractionally integrated process is the workhorse model for the analysis of these time series. Nevertheless,…

Standard geostatistical models assume second order stationarity of the underlying Random Function. In some instances, there is little reason to expect the spatial dependence structure to be stationary over the whole region of interest. In…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

In this study, we develop an asymptotic theory of nonparametric regression for a locally stationary functional time series. First, we introduce the notion of a locally stationary functional time series (LSFTS) that takes values in a…

Understanding and predicting environmental phenomena often requires the construction of spatio-temporal statistical models, which are typically Gaussian processes. A common assumption made on Gaussian processes is that of covariance…

This work proposes a new procedure for estimating the non-stationary spatial covariance function for Spatial-Temporal Deformation. The proposed procedure is based on a monotonic function approach. The deformation functions are expanded as a…

We present a new approach to factor rotation for functional data. This is achieved by rotating the functional principal components toward a predefined space of periodic functions designed to decompose the total variation into components…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling and predicting a class of functional time series with application to energy markets, based on fully observed, noise-free functional data. Traders in such contexts conceive profitable…

We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalised extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterised using the three parameters (location, scale and shape). As a result, the…

Paradoxically, while the assumptions of second-order stationarity and isotropy appear outdated in light of modern spatial data, they remain remarkably robust in practice, as nonstationary methods often provide marginal improvements in…

We introduce deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF), a deep generative model for spatio-temporal data with the capability to unravel recurring patterns in the data and perform robust short- and long-term predictions. Similar…

The era of information explosion had prompted the accumulation of a tremendous amount of time-series data, including stationary and non-stationary time-series data. State-of-the-art algorithms have achieved a decent performance in dealing…

In this paper we introduce a Non-Stationary Fuzzy Time Series (NSFTS) method with time varying parameters adapted from the distribution of the data. In this approach, we employ Non-Stationary Fuzzy Sets, in which perturbation functions are…

Second-order characteristics including covariance and spectral density functions are fundamentally important for both statistical applications and theoretical analysis in functional time series. In the high-dimensional setting where the…

In this paper, we propose a Network-Weighted Functional Regression (NWFR) model, an extension of Spatially Weighted Functional Regression (SWFR) to functional data defined on network-structured settings. To asses predictive uncertainity, we…

An empirical algorithm is used here to study the stochastic and multifractal nature of nonlinear time series. A parameter can be defined to quantitatively measure the deviation of the time series from a Wiener process so that the…

A characteristic feature of functional data is the presence of phase variability in addition to amplitude variability. Existing functional regression methods do not handle time variability in an explicit and efficient way. In this paper we…