相关论文: Evidential time-to-event prediction with calibrate…

Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty.…

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Predicting risks of chronic diseases has become increasingly important in clinical practice. When a prediction model is developed in a given source cohort, there is often a great interest to apply the model to other cohorts. However, due to…

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks has become an active field of research and plays a crucial role in various downstream tasks such as active learning. Recent advances in evidential deep learning shed light on the direct…

Survival analysis aims to estimate a time-to-event distribution from data with censored observations. Many existing methods either impose structural assumptions on the hazard function or discretize the time axis, which may limit flexibility…

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte…

Vital signs, such as heart rate and blood pressure, are critical indicators of patient health and are widely used in clinical monitoring and decision-making. While deep learning models have shown promise in forecasting these signals, their…

While the gold standard for clinical trials is to blind all parties -- participants, researchers, and evaluators -- to treatment assignment, this is not always a possibility. When some or all of the above individuals know the treatment…

Many studies employ the analysis of time-to-event data that incorporates competing risks and right censoring. Most methods and software packages are geared towards analyzing data that comes from a continuous failure time distribution.…

Fuzzy data, prevalent in social sciences and other fields, capture uncertainties arising from subjective evaluations and measurement imprecision. Despite significant advancements in fuzzy statistics, a unified inferential regression-based…

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model…

Reliability inference based on parametric distributions is an important problem in electrical and mechanical engineering. Most existing methods rely on approximations or bootstrap procedures, which may not perform satisfactorily when data…

The development of statistical approaches for the joint modelling of the temporal changes of imaging, biochemical, and clinical biomarkers is of paramount importance for improving the understanding of neurodegenerative disorders, and for…

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Linear models are foundational tools in statistics and ubiquitous across the applied sciences. However, conventional statistical inference -- such as $t$-tests and $F$-tests -- are only valid at fixed sample sizes, making them unsuitable…

Synthetically generated data can improve privacy, fairness, and data accessibility; however, it can be challenging in specialized scenarios such as survival analysis. One key challenge in this setting is censoring, i.e., the timing of an…

Early prediction of patients at risk of clinical deterioration can help physicians intervene and alter their clinical course towards better outcomes. In addition to the accuracy requirement, early warning systems must make the predictions…