相关论文: New Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy for Factor-Au…

We present four novel tests of equal predictive accuracy and encompassing \`a la Pitarakis (2023, 2025) for factor-augmented regressions, where factors are estimated using cross-section averages (CAs) of grouped series. Our inferential…

Forecast evaluations aim to choose an accurate forecast for making decisions by using loss functions. However, different loss functions often generate different ranking results for forecasts, which complicates the task of comparisons. In…

Loss functions are widely used to compare several competing forecasts. However, forecast comparisons are often based on mismeasured proxy variables for the true target. We introduce the concept of exact robustness to measurement error for…

A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…

The approach for testing equal predictive accuracy for pairs of forecasting models proposed by Giacomini and White (2006) assumes that the parameters of the underlying forecasting models are estimated using a rolling window of fixed width…

Scholars frequently use covariate balance tests to test the validity of natural experiments and related designs. Unfortunately, when measured covariates are unrelated to potential outcomes, balance is uninformative about key identification…

The model implied by factor score predictors does not reproduce the non-diagonal elements of the observed covariance matrix as well as the factor loadings. It is therefore investigated whether it is possible to estimate factor loadings for…

Comparative evaluation of forecasts of statistical functionals relies on comparing averaged losses of competing forecasts after the realization of the quantity $Y$, on which the functional is based, has been observed. Motivated by…

Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series…

The problem of testing the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems is revisited. A popular tool to assess the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems (for scalar verifications) is the rank histogram, this histogram is expected to be…

New methods are proposed for adjusting probabilistic forecasts to ensure coherence with the aggregation constraints inherent in temporal hierarchies. The different approaches nested within this framework include methods that exploit…

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees in multi-class classification. However, existing methods often rely on a single score function, which can limit their efficiency…

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. In this paper, we assay a complementary perspective originating from the increasing availability of pre-trained and regularly…

We propose the Factor Augmented sparse linear Regression Model (FARM) that not only encompasses both the latent factor regression and sparse linear regression as special cases but also bridges dimension reduction and sparse regression…

Forecasters often use common information and hence make common mistakes. We propose a new approach, Factor Graphical Model (FGM), to forecast combinations that separates idiosyncratic forecast errors from the common errors. FGM exploits the…

Pervasive cross-section dependence is increasingly recognized as a characteristic of economic data and the approximate factor model provides a useful framework for analysis. Assuming a strong factor structure where $\Lop\Lo/N^\alpha$ is…

Machine learning is about forecasting. When the forecasts come with an evaluation metric the forecasts become useful. What are reasonable evaluation metrics? How do existing evaluation metrics relate? In this work, we provide a general…

The replication crisis in social and behavioral sciences has raised concerns about the reliability and validity of empirical studies. While research in the literature has explored contributing factors to this crisis, the issues related to…

Quantile forecasts made across multiple horizons have become an important output of many financial institutions, central banks and international organisations. This paper proposes misspecification tests for such quantile forecasts that…

We consider the estimation of approximate factor models for time series data, where strong serial and cross-sectional correlations amongst the idiosyncratic component are present. This setting comes up naturally in many applications, but…