相关论文: Modeling a demographic problem using the Leslie ma…

Data on historical populations often extends no further than numbers of people by broad age-sex group, with nothing on numbers of births or deaths. Demographers studying these populations have experimented with methods that use the data on…

Social contact matrices are essential tools in infectious disease epidemiology as they quantify close-range human contact patterns which directly drive the transmission of airborne infectious diseases. In this work we propose a Bayesian…

We reformulate models in epidemiology and population dynamics in terms of probability distributions. This allows us to construct the Fisher information, which we interpret as the metric of a one-dimensional differentiable manifold. For…

Models for accurately predicting species distributions have become essential tools for many ecological and conservation problems. For many species, presence-background (presence-only) data is the most commonly available type of spatial…

Continuous mixtures of distributions are widely employed in the statistical literature as models for phenomena with highly divergent outcomes; in particular, many familiar heavy-tailed distributions arise naturally as mixtures of…

In a complex community, species continuously adapt to each other. On rare occasions, the adaptation of a species can lead to the extinction of others, and even its own. "Adaptive dynamics" is the standard mathematical framework to describe…

The aim of this manuscript is to contain the arguments and define the theoretical objects for building a general framework to model population dynamics from the ground up, relying mainly on the probabilistic landscapes defining the dynamics…

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be \textit{distributionally aligned} remains uncertain. This notion of…

Contact matrices have become a key ingredient of modern epidemic models. They account for the stratification of contacts for the age of individuals and, in some cases, the context of their interactions. However, age and context are not the…

The class of deterministic 'Daphnia' models treated by Diekmann et al. (J Math Biol 61: 277-318, 2010) has a long history going back to Nisbet and Gurney (Theor Pop Biol 23: 114-135, 1983) and Diekmann et al. (Nieuw Archief voor Wiskunde 4:…

This article arises as an alternative solution to the problem of estimating the future population of some care centers for children and adolescents at social risk. The population of these centers fluctuates from month to month due to…

Understanding the prevalence of key demographic and health indicators in small geographic areas and domains is of global interest, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where vital registration data is sparse and household…

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have become ubiquitous in many fields, understanding and mitigating LLM biases is an ongoing issue. This paper provides a novel method for evaluating the demographic biases of various generative AI models.…

We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…

Matrix population models have proved popular and useful for studying stage-structured populations in quantitative ecology. The goal of this paper is to develop and analyze a general matrix population model that is applicable to the…

We propose an extremely simple mathematical model that is shown to be able to account for more than 99 per cent of all the variation in economic and demographic macrodynamics of the world for almost two millennia of its history. This…

Predicting dynamic behaviors is one of the goals of science in general as well as essential to many specific applications of human knowledge to real world systems. Here we introduce an analytic approach using the sigmoid growth curve to…

We consider the problem of aligning a large language model (LLM) to model the preferences of a human population. Modeling the beliefs, preferences, and behaviors of a specific population can be useful for a variety of different…

Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for…

We analyse the effect of harvesting in a resource dependent age structured population model, deriving the conditions for the existence of a stable steady state as a function of fertility coefficients, harvesting mortality and carrying…