相关论文: Computational Imaging for Long-Term Prediction of …

Despite the increasing importance of forecasts of renewable energy, current planning studies only address a general estimate of the forecast quality to be expected and selected forecast horizons. However, these estimates allow only a…

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation (also called total generation) is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work…

Photovoltaic (PV) power is affected by weather conditions, making the power generated from the PV systems uncertain. Solving this problem would help improve the reliability and cost effectiveness of the grid, and could help reduce reliance…

Solar forecasting from ground-based sky images has shown great promise in reducing the uncertainty in solar power generation. With more and more sky image datasets open sourced in recent years, the development of accurate and reliable deep…

The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…

Despite over 35 years of constant satellite-based measurements of cloud, reliable evidence of a long-hypothesized link between changes in solar activity and Earth's cloud cover remains elusive. This work examines evidence of a cosmic ray…

The properties and spatial distribution of large-scale structures of the solar corona determine the observed solar wind structure at 1 au. Coronal holes are a major source of fast solar wind, an important geo-effective component, and appear…

Inter-cycle variations in the series of 11-year solar activity cycles have a significant impact on both the space environment and climate. Whether solar cycle variability is dominated by deterministic chaos or stochastic perturbations…

Because geostationary satellite (Geo) imagery provides a high temporal resolution window into tropical cyclone (TC) behavior, we investigate the viability of its application to short-term probabilistic forecasts of TC convective structure…

The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…

Much of our understanding of the internal structure of the Sun derives from so-called standard theoretical solar models. Unfortunately, none of those models agrees completely with observation. The discrepancy is commonly associated with…

Space weather refers to conditions on the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in the Earth space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human…

Large scale shadows from buildings in a city play an important role in determining the environmental quality of public spaces. They can be both beneficial, such as for pedestrians during summer, and detrimental, by impacting vegetation and…

We investigate the effects of atmospheric dispersion on observations of the Sun at the ever-higher spatial resolutions afforded by increased apertures and improved techniques. The problems induced by atmospheric refraction are particularly…

As solar power continues to grow and replace traditional energy sources, the need for reliable forecasting models becomes increasingly important to ensure the stability and efficiency of the grid. However, the management of these models…

Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed…

Interactions between clouds and radiation are at the root of many difficulties in numerically predicting future weather and climate and in retrieving the state of the atmosphere from remote sensing observations. The large range of issues…

Solar wind forecasting plays a crucial role in space weather prediction, yet significant uncertainties persist due to incomplete magnetic field observations of the Sun. Isolating the solar wind forecasting errors due to these effects is…

The cosmic-ray Sun shadow, which is caused by high-energy charged cosmic rays being blocked and deflected by the Sun and its magnetic field, has been observed by various experiments, such as Argo-YBJ, HAWC, Tibet, and IceCube. Most notably,…