相关论文: Non-asymptotic Estimates for Markov Transition Mat…

We consider Hidden Markov Chains obtained by passing a Markov Chain with rare transitions through a noisy memoryless channel. We obtain asymptotic estimates for the entropy of the resulting Hidden Markov Chain as the transition rate is…

In this paper, we investigate a nonparametric approach to provide a recursive estimator of the transition density of a non-stationary piecewise-deterministic Markov process, from only one observation of the path within a long time. In this…

A spectral method for identifying lumping in large Markov chains is presented. Identification of meta stable states is treated as a special case. The method is based on spectral analysis of a self-adjoint matrix that is a function of the…

Motivated by robotic surveillance applications, this paper studies the novel problem of maximizing the return time entropy of a Markov chain, subject to a graph topology with travel times and stationary distribution. The return time entropy…

This paper studies the estimation of low-rank Markov chains from empirical trajectories. We propose a non-convex estimator based on rank-constrained likelihood maximization. Statistical upper bounds are provided for the Kullback-Leiber…

This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{\text{mix}}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from…

We propose a simple technique for verifying probabilistic models whose transition probabilities are parametric. The key is to replace parametric transitions by nondeterministic choices of extremal values. Analysing the resulting…

We derive the first explicit bounds for the spectral gap of a random walk Metropolis algorithm on $R^d$ for any value of the proposal variance, which when scaled appropriately recovers the correct $d^{-1}$ dependence on dimension for…

We study the matrix discrepancy problem in the average-case setting. Given a sequence of $m \times m$ symmetric matrices $A_1,\ldots,A_n$, its discrepancy is defined as the minimal spectral norm over all signed sums $\sum_{i=1}^n x_iA_i$…

We consider quantile estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo and establish conditions under which the sampling distribution of the Monte Carlo error is approximately Normal. Further, we investigate techniques to estimate the associated…

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) offer a powerful stochastic modeling framework that combines deterministic trajectories with random perturbations at random times. Estimating their local characteristics (particularly the…

In this paper, we develop asymptotic theories for a class of latent variable models for large-scale multi-relational networks. In particular, we establish consistency results and asymptotic error bounds for the (penalized) maximum…

We build optimal exponential bounds for the probabilities of large deviations of sums \sum_{k=1}^nf(X_k) where (X_k) is a finite reversible Markov chain and f is an arbitrary bounded function. These bounds depend only on the stationary mean…

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

In the thesis we take the split chain approach to analyzing Markov chains and use it to establish fixed-width results for estimators obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures (MCMC). Theoretical results include necessary and…

This paper introduces a new algorithm for numerically computing equilibrium (i.e. stationary) distributions for Markov chains and Markov jump processes with either a very large finite state space or a countably infinite state space. The…

In this paper, we derive non-asymptotic achievability and converse bounds on the random number generation with/without side-information. Our bounds are efficiently computable in the sense that the computational complexity does not depend on…

Nonlinear Markov Chains (nMC) are regarded as the original (linear) Markov Chains with nonlinear small perturbations. It fits real-world data better, but its associated properties are difficult to describe. A new approach is proposed to…

In this paper, we study parametric nonlinear regression under the Harris recurrent Markov chain framework. We first consider the nonlinear least squares estimators of the parameters in the homoskedastic case, and establish asymptotic theory…