相关论文: Forecasting mortality rates with functional signat…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

Background and Objective: Vital sign monitoring in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is crucial for enabling prompt interventions for patients. This underscores the need for an accurate predictive system. Therefore, this study proposes a novel…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modeling sequential data, where the underlying states evolve in a stochastic manner and are only indirectly observable. Traditional HMM approaches are well-established for linear sequences,…

This research explores how total mortality figures relate to age-standardized death rates within the United States, using the complete historical record of national mortality statistics. Through a detailed investigation of both all-cause…

This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first…

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume…

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…

The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…

Evaluating quality-of-life (QoL) outcomes in populations with high mortality risk is complicated by truncation by death, since QoL is undefined for individuals who do not survive to the planned measurement time. We propose a framework that…

Data-driven methods for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction normally learn features from a fixed window size of a priori of degradation, which may lead to less accurate prediction results on different datasets because of the variance of…

ICU mortality risk prediction is a tough yet important task. On one hand, due to the complex temporal data collected, it is difficult to identify the effective features and interpret them easily; on the other hand, good prediction can help…

Traditional multi-population models, such as the Li-Lee framework, rely on the assumption of mean-reverting country-specific deviations. However, recent data from high-longevity clusters suggest a systemic break in this paradigm. We…

Recent developments in big data analysis, machine learning, Industry 4.0, and IoT applications have enabled the monitoring and processing of multi-sensor data collected from systems, allowing for the prediction of the "Remaining Useful…

Accurate and interpretable mortality risk prediction in intensive care units (ICUs) remains a critical challenge due to the irregular temporal structure of electronic health records (EHRs), the complexity of longitudinal disease…

Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…

The health state assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation play very important roles in prognostics and health management (PHM), owing to their abilities to reduce the maintenance and improve the safety of machines or equipment.…

Survival analysis stands as a pivotal process in cancer treatment research, crucial for predicting patient survival rates accurately. Recent advancements in data collection techniques have paved the way for enhancing survival predictions by…

We introduce a statistical method for modeling and forecasting functional panel data represented by multiple densities. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral and thus do not constitute a linear vector space. We…

Mortality forecasting is crucial for demographic planning and actuarial studies, especially for projecting population ageing and longevity risk. Classical approaches largely rely on extrapolative methods, such as the Lee-Carter (LC) model,…