相关论文: International Trade Flow Prediction with Bilateral…

This paper explores the gain maximization problem of two nations engaging in non-cooperative bilateral trade. Probabilistic model of an exchange of commodities under different price systems is considered. Volume of commodities exchanged…

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns…

Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction…

International economics has a long history of improving our understanding of factors causing trade, and the consequences of free flow of goods and services across countries. The recent shocks to the free trade regime, especially trade…

This study decomposes the bilateral trade flows using a three-dimensional panel data model. Under the scenario that all three dimensions diverge to infinity, we propose an estimation approach to identify the number of global shocks and…

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify…

This paper investigates the evolving dynamics of international trade, emphasizing the strategic interplay between competition and cooperation within the global trade network. It argues that competitive advantages - rather than traditional…

Maritime transport is a pivotal logistics mode for the long-distance and bulk transportation of goods. However, the intricate planning involved in this mode is often hindered by uncertainties, including weather conditions, cargo diversity,…

The international trade network (ITN) has received renewed multidisciplinary interest due to recent advances in network theory. However, it is still unclear whether a network approach conveys additional, nontrivial information with respect…

Numerous variable selection methods rely on a two-stage procedure, where a sparsity-inducing penalty is used in the first stage to predict the support, which is then conveyed to the second stage for estimation or inference purposes. In this…

Prediction is one of the major challenges in complex systems. The prediction methods have shown to be effective predictors of the evolution of networks. These methods can help policy makers to solve practical problems successfully and make…

This two-part paper presents a new approach to predictive analysis for social processes. Part I identifies a class of social processes, called positive externality processes, which are both important and difficult to predict, and introduces…

Gravity equations are often used to evaluate the effects of trade policies, such as regional trade agreements. We argue that their suitability for this purpose critically depends on their ability to produce unbiased out-of-sample…

We propose an interpretable machine learning framework to help identify trade data discrepancies that are challenging to detect with traditional methods. Our system analyzes trade data to find a novel inverse price-volume signature, a…

Based on the approach of flow distances, the international trade flow system is studied from the perspective of multi-layer flow network. A model of multi-layer flow network is proposed for modelling and analyzing multiple types of flows in…

We study a bilateral trade problem where a principal has private information that is revealed with delay, such as a seller who does not yet know her production cost. Postponing the contracting process incurs a costly delay, while early…

Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic…

This study seeks to improve the throughput rates for shipping container terminals. In the United States, shipping ports link the domestic economy to global markets and are vital to sustain supply chain flow and economic stability. Maritime…

Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally,…

International trade research plays an important role to inform trade policy and shed light on wider issues relating to poverty, development, migration, productivity, and economy. With recent advances in information technology, global and…