相关论文: Forecast Linear Augmented Projection (FLAP): A fre…

The non-linear autoregressive (NLAR) model plays an important role in modeling and predicting time series. One-step ahead prediction is straightforward using the NLAR model, but the multi-step ahead prediction is cumbersome. For instance,…

To be able to produce accurate and reliable predictions of visibility has crucial importance in aviation meteorology, as well as in water- and road transportation. Nowadays, several meteorological services provide ensemble forecasts of…

We propose a finite sample based predictor for estimated linear one dimensional time series models and compute the associated total forecasting error. The expression for the error that we present takes into account the estimation error.…

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

High-dimensional time series forecasting suffers from severe overfitting when the number of predictors exceeds available observations, making standard local projection methods unstable and unreliable. We propose an enhanced Random Subspace…

We suggest a new method, called Functional Additive Regression, or FAR, for efficiently performing high-dimensional functional regression. FAR extends the usual linear regression model involving a functional predictor, $X(t)$, and a scalar…

Accurate structural relaxation is critical for advanced materials design. Traditional approaches built on physics-derived first-principles calculations are computationally expensive, motivating the creation of machine-learning interatomic…

For applications of machine learning in critical decisions, explainability is a primary concern, and often a regulatory requirement. Local linear methods for generating explanations, such as LIME and SHAP, have been criticized for being…

Linear regression with normally distributed errors - including particular cases such as ANOVA, Student's t-test or location-scale inference - is a widely used statistical procedure. In this case the ordinary least squares estimator…

Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by…

In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is…

We explore estimation and forecast accuracy for sparse linear models, focusing on scenarios where both predictors and errors carry serial correlations. We establish a clear link between predictor serial correlation and the performance of…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful tool for building prediction intervals that are valid in a distribution-free way. However, its evaluation may be computationally costly, especially in the high-dimensional setting where the…

The Projected Augmented Waves (PAW) method is based on a linear transformation between the pseudo wavefunctions and the all electron wavefunctions. To obtain high accuracy with this method, it is important that the local part of the linear…

We address the problem of prediction for extreme observations by proposing an extremal linear prediction method. We construct an inner product space of nonnegative random variables derived from transformed-linear combinations of independent…

This paper studies predictor functions motivated by maximizing a measure of agreement with the predictand. Specifically, it examines distributional properties and predictive performance of the estimated maximum agreement linear predictor…

Recent advances in diffusion-based generative modeling have demonstrated significant promise in tackling long-horizon, sparse-reward tasks by leveraging offline datasets. While these approaches have achieved promising results, their…

We introduce variable projected augmented Lagrangian (VPAL) methods for solving generalized nonlinear Lasso problems with improved speed and accuracy. By eliminating the nonsmooth variable via soft-thresholding, VPAL transforms the problem…

We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction intervals for multi-step time series forecasting, with a focus on the temporal dependencies inherent in multi-step forecast errors. We establish that the optimal…

This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a…