相关论文: Joint estimation of insurance loss development fac…

This paper considers the quickest detection problem for hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a Bayesian setting. We construct an augmented HMM representation of the problem that allows the application of a dynamic programming approach to prove…

Latent variable models provide a powerful framework for incorporating and inferring unobserved factors in observational data. In causal inference, they help account for hidden factors influencing treatment or outcome, thereby addressing…

In this paper, we propose a new method based on Hidden Markov Models to interpret temporal sequences of sensor data from mobile robots to automatically detect features. Hidden Markov Models have been used for a long time in pattern…

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

Telling apart the cause and effect between two random variables with purely observational data is a challenging problem that finds applications in various scientific disciplines. A key principle utilized in this task is the algorithmic…

There exists a range of different models for estimating and simulating credit risk transitions to optimally manage credit risk portfolios and products. In this chapter we present a Coupled Markov Chain approach to model rating transitions…

In this article we consider an aggregate loss model with dependent losses. The losses occurrence process is governed by a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2), a Markov renewal process process that allows for (1) correlated…

Most of previous works and applications of Bayesian factor model have assumed the normal likelihood regardless of its validity. We propose a Bayesian factor model for heavy-tailed high-dimensional data based on multivariate Student-$t$…

With the advancement in technology, telematics data which capture vehicle movements information are becoming available to more insurers. As these data capture the actual driving behaviour, they are expected to improve our understanding of…

We propose a novel approach for loss reserving based on deep neural networks. The approach allows for joint modeling of paid losses and claims outstanding, and incorporation of heterogeneous inputs. We validate the models on loss reserving…

We consider estimating the transition probability matrix of a finite-state finite-observation alphabet hidden Markov model with known observation probabilities. The main contribution is a two-step algorithm; a method of moments estimator…

We propose a probabilistic modeling framework for learning the dynamic patterns in the collective behaviors of social agents and developing profiles for different behavioral groups, using data collected from multiple information sources.…

Gaussian mixtures are commonly used for modeling heavy-tailed error distributions in robust linear regression. Combining the likelihood of a multivariate robust linear regression model with a standard improper prior distribution yields an…

This study introduces a dynamic investment framework to enhance portfolio management in volatile markets, offering clear advantages over traditional static strategies. Evaluates four conventional approaches : equal weighted, minimum…

With increased interest in adopting AI methods for clinical diagnosis, a vital step towards safe deployment of such tools is to ensure that the models not only produce accurate predictions but also do not generalize to data regimes where…

We introduce a dynamic optimization framework to analyze optimal portfolio allocations within an information driven contagious distress model. The investor allocates his wealth across several stocks whose growth rates and distress…

Traditional survival analysis techniques focus on the occurrence of failures over the time. During analysis of such events, ignoring the related unobserved covariates or heterogeneity involved in data sample may leads us to adverse…

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components. We propose a novel data-driven approach for simulating realistic, high-dimensional…

In the 1960s, Shiryaev developed a Bayesian theory of change-point detection in the i.i.d. case, which was generalized in the beginning of the 2000s by Tartakovsky and Veeravalli for general stochastic models assuming a certain stability of…

Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMA) capture real-time thoughts and behaviors in natural settings, producing rich longitudinal data for statistical and physiological analyses. However, the robustness of these analyses can be compromised…