相关论文: Challenges and Considerations in the Evaluation of…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods perform inference on model-specific parameters of mechanistically motivated parametric statistical models when evaluating likelihoods is difficult. Central to the success of ABC methods is…

Causal discovery from observational data is an important tool in many branches of science. Under certain assumptions it allows scientists to explain phenomena, predict, and make decisions. In the large sample limit, sound and complete…

Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

As causal ground truth is incredibly rare, causal discovery algorithms are commonly only evaluated on simulated data. This is concerning, given that simulations reflect preconceptions about generating processes regarding noise…

Ordinal classification problems, where labels exhibit a natural order, are prevalent in high-stakes fields such as medicine and finance. Accurate uncertainty quantification, including the decomposition into aleatoric (inherent variability)…

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

During the past five years the Bayesian deep learning community has developed increasingly accurate and efficient approximate inference procedures that allow for Bayesian inference in deep neural networks. However, despite this algorithmic…

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

We revisit empirical Bayes discrimination detection, focusing on uncertainty arising from both partial identification and sampling variability. While prior work has mostly focused on partial identification, we find that some empirical…

Bayesian inference paradigms are regarded as powerful tools for solution of inverse problems. However, when applied to inverse problems in physical sciences, Bayesian formulations suffer from a number of inconsistencies that are often…

Model selection in the presence of intractable likelihoods remains a central challenge in Bayesian inference. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides a flexible likelihood-free framework, but its use for model choice is known to be…

Neural causal discovery methods have recently improved in terms of scalability and computational efficiency. However, our systematic evaluation highlights significant room for improvement in their accuracy when uncovering causal structures.…

Causal discovery from data affected by latent confounders is an important and difficult challenge. Causal functional model-based approaches have not been used to present variables whose relationships are affected by latent confounders,…

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC for short) is a family of computational techniques which offer an almost automated solution in situations where evaluation of the posterior likelihood is computationally prohibitive, or whenever…

A series of monte carlo studies were performed to compare the behavior of some alternative procedures for reasoning under uncertainty. The behavior of several Bayesian, linear model and default reasoning procedures were examined in the…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate…

Externally controlled trials (ECTs) are increasingly used when randomized controls are infeasible, unethical, or insufficient, including applications in rare diseases, oncology, pediatrics, and post-approval effectiveness research. Although…