相关论文: Optimal Multiclass U-Calibration Error and Beyond

Many classification applications require accurate probability estimates in addition to good class separation but often classifiers are designed focusing only on the latter. Calibration is the process of improving probability estimates by…

We study an online mixed discrete and continuous optimization problem where a decision maker interacts with an unknown environment for a number of $T$ rounds. At each round, the decision maker needs to first jointly choose a discrete and a…

We study \emph{online multicalibration}, a framework for ensuring calibrated predictions across multiple groups in adversarial settings, across $T$ rounds. Although online calibration is typically studied in the $\ell_1$ norm, prior…

Blasiok et al. [2023] proposed distance to calibration as a natural measure of calibration error that unlike expected calibration error (ECE) is continuous. Recently, Qiao and Zheng [2024] gave a non-constructive argument establishing the…

Generative models frequently suffer miscalibration, wherein statistics of the sampling distribution, such as the fraction of generations in a given class, deviate from desired values. We frame calibration as a constrained optimization…

Estimated uncertainty by approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks are prone to miscalibration, which leads to overconfident predictions in critical tasks that have a clear asymmetric cost or significant losses. Here, we extend the…

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

In this paper, we study the classical Hedge algorithm in combinatorial settings. In each round, the learner selects a vector $\boldsymbol{x}_t$ from a set $X \subseteq \{0,1\}^d$, observes a full loss vector $\boldsymbol{y}_t \in…

We study the problem of prediction with expert advice when the number of experts in question may be extremely large or even infinite. We devise an algorithm that obtains a tight regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\epsilon T + N + \sqrt{NT})$,…

Model overconfidence and poor calibration are common in machine learning and difficult to account for when applying standard empirical risk minimization. In this work, we propose a novel method to alleviate these problems that we call…

Machine learning algorithms are designed to make accurate predictions of the future based on existing data, while online algorithms seek to bound some performance measure (typically the competitive ratio) without knowledge of the future.…

Much of the work in online learning focuses on the study of sublinear upper bounds on the regret. In this work, we initiate the study of best-case lower bounds in online convex optimization, wherein we bound the largest improvement an…

We consider the problem setting of prediction with expert advice with possibly heavy-tailed losses, i.e. the only assumption on the losses is an upper bound on their second moments, denoted by $\theta$. We develop adaptive algorithms that…

We study online multicalibration beyond the worst-case. We give a single, efficient algorithm which dynamically interpolates between benign and worst-case sequences by adaptively refining a dyadic grid of prediction values. Its error is…

We resolve an open question from (Christiano, 2014b) posed in COLT'14 regarding the optimal dependency of the regret achievable for online local learning on the size of the label set. In this framework the algorithm is shown a pair of items…

We study unconstrained Online Linear Optimization with Lipschitz losses. Motivated by the pursuit of instance optimality, we propose a new algorithm that simultaneously achieves ($i$) the AdaGrad-style second order gradient adaptivity; and…

A sequence of works in unconstrained online convex optimisation have investigated the possibility of adapting simultaneously to the norm $U$ of the comparator and the maximum norm $G$ of the gradients. In full generality, matching upper and…

In this work, we study the online convex optimization problem with curved losses and delayed feedback. When losses are strongly convex, existing approaches obtain regret bounds of order $d_{\max} \ln T$, where $d_{\max}$ is the maximum…

Probabilistic classifiers are central for making informed decisions under uncertainty. Based on the maximum expected utility principle, optimal decision rules can be derived using the posterior class probabilities and misclassification…

We propose an online learning algorithm that adaptively designs a decentralized linear quadratic regulator when the system model is unknown a priori and new data samples from a single system trajectory become progressively available. The…