相关论文: Uncertainty quantification for damage mechanics mo…

In experimental causal inference, we distinguish between two sources of uncertainty: design uncertainty, due to the treatment assignment mechanism, and sampling uncertainty, when the sample is drawn from a super-population. This distinction…

Geostatistical modeling of the reservoir intrinsic properties starts only with sparse data available. These estimates will depend largely on the number of wells and their location. The drilling costs are so high that they do not allow new…

The bootstrap, introduced by Efron (1982), has become a very popular method for estimating variances and constructing confidence intervals. A key insight is that one can approximate the properties of estimators by using the empirical…

Phase fractions, compositions and energies of the stable phases as a function of macroscopic composition, temperature, and pressure (X-T-P) are the principle correlations needed for the design of new materials and improvement of existing…

Geothermal field modeling is often associated with uncertainties related to the subsurface static properties and the dynamics of fluid flow and heat transfer. Uncertainty quantification using simulations is a useful tool to design optimum…

The use of longitudinal finite mixture models such as group-based trajectory modeling has seen a sharp increase during the last decades in the medical literature. However, these methods have been criticized especially because of the…

Estimating the mixing density of a latent mixture model is an important task in signal processing. Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation is one popular approach to this problem. If the latent variable distribution is assumed to be…

Sparse model identification enables nonlinear dynamical system discovery from data. However, the control of false discoveries for sparse model identification is challenging, especially in the low-data and high-noise limit. In this paper, we…

This guide aims at providing a general introduction to bootstrap methods. By using simple examples taken from nuclear physics, I discuss how such a method can be used to quantify error bars of an estimator. I also investigate the use of…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

The estimation of uncertainties associated with predictions from quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models can accelerate the drug discovery process by identifying promising experiments and allowing an efficient allocation…

Standard gradient descent methods yield point estimates with no measure of confidence. This limitation is acute in overparameterized and low-data regimes, where models have many parameters relative to available data and can easily overfit.…

Entropy estimation plays a crucial role in various fields, such as information theory, statistical data science, and machine learning. However, traditional entropy estimation methods often struggle with complex data distributions.…

Extreme weather poses a large risk to critical energy systems (Ekisheva, Rieder, Norris, Lauby, & Dobson 2021; Levin, Botterud, Mann, Kwon, & Zhou 2022). Uncertainty quantification of negative impacts is important for developing resilience,…

In a spatial-temporal model, structural change and/or spatial heterogeneity can easily affect estimation of parameters. Following the spatial-temporal model in [1], we develop a nonparametric procedure for test-ing the presence of…

Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…

The partially linear binary choice model can be used for estimating structural equations where nonlinearity may appear due to diminishing marginal returns, different life cycle regimes, or hectic physical phenomena. The inference procedure…

Despite their deterministic nature, dynamical systems often exhibit seemingly random behaviour. Consequently, a dynamical system is usually represented by a probabilistic model of which the unknown parameters must be estimated using…

Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…

The development of large databases of material properties, together with the availability of powerful computers, has allowed machine learning (ML) modeling to become a widely used tool for predicting material performances. While confidence…