相关论文: Scaling Law for Time Series Forecasting

Neural scaling laws predict how language model performance improves with increased training inputs. While aggregate metrics like validation loss can follow smooth power-law curves, individual downstream tasks exhibit diverse scaling…

The rapid advancements in large Language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, driven by various strategies such as multi-agent collaboration. However, unlike the well-established performance improvements…

Diffusion transformers (DiT) have already achieved appealing synthesis and scaling properties in content recreation, e.g., image and video generation. However, scaling laws of DiT are less explored, which usually offer precise predictions…

Scaling has been proposed as a powerful tool to analyze the properties of complex systems, and in particular for cities where it describes how various properties change with population. The empirical study of scaling on a wide range of…

Continual Pre-training (CPT) serves as a fundamental approach for adapting foundation models to domain-specific applications. Scaling laws for pre-training define a power-law relationship between dataset size and the test loss of an LLM.…

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven…

Time series forecasting models often exhibit inconsistent performance across datasets with varying statistical and structural properties. Despite the wide range of available forecasting techniques, it remains unclear whether model selection…

The rapid development of time series forecasting research has brought many deep learning-based modules in this field. However, despite the increasing amount of new forecasting architectures, it is still unclear if we have leveraged the full…

In this work, we provide a sharp theory of scaling laws for two-layer neural networks trained on a class of hierarchical multi-index targets, in a genuinely representation-limited regime. We derive exact information-theoretic scaling laws…

With the analysis of the hierarchical scheme, the potential influence of the pre-constant in deriving scaling laws is exposed. It is found that a modified hierarchical scheme can achieve a throughput arbitrarily times higher than the…

The scaling law is a notable property of neural network models and has significantly propelled the development of large language models. Scaling laws hold great promise in guiding model design and resource allocation. Recent research…

Batch size scheduling (BSS) plays a critical role in large-scale deep learning training, influencing both optimization dynamics and computational efficiency. Yet, its theoretical foundations remain poorly understood. In this work, we show…

Time series forecasting is an important yet challenging task. Though deep learning methods have recently been developed to give superior forecasting results, it is crucial to improve the interpretability of time series models. Previous…

Scaling laws play an instrumental role in the sustainable improvement in model quality. Unfortunately, recommendation models to date do not exhibit such laws similar to those observed in the domain of large language models, due to the…

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has established that scaling compute, through joint increases in model capacity and dataset size, is the primary driver of performance in modern machine learning. While machine learning has long…

We show that the scaling laws which determine the performance of large language models (LLMs) severely limit their ability to improve the uncertainty of their predictions. As a result, raising their reliability to meet the standards of…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are large-scale pretrained models that have achieved remarkable success across diverse domains. These successes have been driven by unprecedented complexity and scale in both data and computations. However, due…

Machine learning models have made significant progress in load forecasting, but their forecast accuracy is limited in cases where historical load data is scarce. Inspired by the outstanding performance of large language models (LLMs) in…

When data is plentiful, the loss achieved by well-trained neural networks scales as a power-law $L \propto N^{-\alpha}$ in the number of network parameters $N$. This empirical scaling law holds for a wide variety of data modalities, and may…

In this article, we describe the algorithms for causal structure learning from time series data that won the Causality 4 Climate competition at the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2019 (NeurIPS). We examine how our…