相关论文: Scaling Law for Time Series Forecasting

In real-world applications, observations are often constrained to a small fraction of a system. Such spatial subsampling can be caused by the inaccessibility or the sheer size of the system, and cannot be overcome by longer sampling.…

Neural networks have revolutionized many empirical fields, yet their application to financial time series forecasting remains controversial. In this study, we demonstrate that the conventional practice of estimating models locally in…

Graph deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Unlike traditional multivariate forecasting methods, graph-based predictors leverage pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on…

Systems are commonly monitored for health and security through collection and streaming of multivariate time series. Advances in time series forecasting due to adoption of multilayer recurrent neural network architectures make it possible…

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across diverse tasks, largely driven by high-quality web data used in pre-training. However, recent studies indicate this data source is rapidly depleting. Synthetic data emerges as a…

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to…

Among recent developments in time series forecasting methods, deep forecasting models have gained popularity as they can utilize hidden feature patterns in time series to improve forecasting performance. Nevertheless, the majority of…

Uncovering the mechanism leading to the scaling law in human trajectories is of fundamental importance in understanding many spatiotemporal phenomena. We propose a hierarchical geographical model to mimic the real traffic system, upon which…

Synthetic-to-real transfer learning is a framework in which a synthetically generated dataset is used to pre-train a model to improve its performance on real vision tasks. The most significant advantage of using synthetic images is that the…

Molecular generative models, often employing GPT-style language modeling on molecular string representations, have shown promising capabilities when scaled to large datasets and model sizes. However, it remains unclear and subject to debate…

Artificial intelligence models are increasingly scaled to improve predictive accuracy, yet it remains unclear whether scale improves the quality of post-hoc explanations. We investigate this relationship by evaluating 11 computer vision…

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis…

This paper presents a method for time series forecasting with deep learning and its assessment on two datasets. The method starts with data preparation, followed by model training and evaluation. The final step is a visual inspection.…

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons.…

The advancement of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has been driven primarily by large-scale pre-training, but inference-time compute potential remains largely untapped. This work systematically investigates two questions: how do TSFMs…

Numerous urban indicators scale with population in a power law across cities, but whether the cross-sectional scaling law is applicable to the temporal growth of individual cities is unclear. Here we first find two paradoxical scaling…

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require…

Data scaling has revolutionized fields like natural language processing and computer vision, providing models with remarkable generalization capabilities. In this paper, we investigate whether similar data scaling laws exist in robotics,…

Scaling laws are powerful tools to predict the performance of large language models. However, current scaling laws fall short of accounting for inference costs. In this work, we first show that model architecture affects inference latency,…

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a promising frontier for recommender systems, yet their development has been impeded by the absence of predictable scaling laws, which are crucial for guiding research and optimizing resource…