相关论文: Scaling Law for Time Series Forecasting

Larger models learn tasks smaller models do not. What drives this phenomenon? We develop a simple phenomenological argument that power-law scaling already suggests that a larger model will be able to learn a part of the data distribution…

Predicting changes from scaling advanced AI systems is a desirable property for engineers, economists, governments and industry alike, and, while a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, predictable…

The scaling law, a cornerstone of Large Language Model (LLM) development, predicts improvements in model performance with increasing computational resources. Yet, while empirically validated, its theoretical underpinnings remain poorly…

Sequentially obtained dataset usually exhibits different behavior at different data resolutions/scales. Instead of inferring from data at each scale individually, it is often more informative to interpret the data as an ensemble of time…

Scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) predict model performance based on parameters like size and training data. However, differences in training configurations and data processing across model families lead to significant…

Scaling laws guide the development of large language models (LLMs) by offering estimates for the optimal balance of model size, tokens, and compute. More recently, loss-to-loss scaling laws that relate losses across pretraining datasets and…

Power-law scaling, a central concept in critical phenomena, is found to be useful in deep learning, where optimized test errors on handwritten digit examples converge as a power-law to zero with database size. For rapid decision making with…

Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…

Test-time scaling improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by allocating extra compute to generate longer Chains-of-Thoughts (CoTs). This enables models to tackle more complex problem by breaking them down into…

The performance of embodied agents has been shown to improve by increasing model parameters, dataset size, and compute. This has been demonstrated in domains from robotics to video games, when generative learning objectives on offline…

Data scaling has revolutionized research fields like natural language processing, computer vision, and robotics control, providing foundation models with remarkable multi-task and generalization capabilities. In this paper, we investigate…

Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the…

Neural scaling laws characterize how model performance improves as the model size scales up. Inspired by empirical observations, we introduce a resource model of neural scaling. A task is usually composite hence can be decomposed into many…

Code Large Language Models (LLMs) are revolutionizing software engineering. However, scaling laws that guide the efficient training are predominantly analyzed on Natural Language (NL). Given the fundamental differences like strict syntax…

Hierarchical forecasting is a key problem in many practical multivariate forecasting applications - the goal is to simultaneously predict a large number of correlated time series that are arranged in a pre-specified aggregation hierarchy.…

Recently a number of empirical "universal" scaling law papers have been published, most notably by OpenAI. `Scaling laws' refers to power-law decreases of training or test error w.r.t. more data, larger neural networks, and/or more compute.…

In recent years, with the popularization of deep learning frameworks and large datasets, researchers have started parallelizing their models in order to train faster. This is crucially important, because they typically explore many…

Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work, these were shown to systematically present a lower…

Scaling laws motivate the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that pre-train vast parameters and achieve remarkable zero-shot forecasting performance. Surprisingly, even after fine-tuning, TSFMs cannot consistently…

Scaling laws play a central role in the success of Large Language Models (LLMs), enabling the prediction of model performance relative to compute budgets prior to training. While Transformers have been the dominant architecture, recent…