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A key design constraint when implementing Monte Carlo and variational inference algorithms is that it must be possible to cheaply and exactly evaluate the marginal densities of proposal distributions and variational families. This takes…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-22 Alexander K. Lew , Marco Cusumano-Towner , Vikash K. Mansinghka

In vitro fertilization (IVF) comprises a sequence of interventions concerned with the creation and culture of embryos which are then transferred to the patient's uterus. While the clinically important endpoint is birth, the responses to…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-10-21 Jack Wilkinson , Stephen A Roberts , Andy Vail

Causal machine learning holds promise for estimating individual treatment effects from complex data. For successful real-world applications of machine learning methods, it is of paramount importance to obtain reliable insights into which…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-22 Joseph Paillard , Angel Reyero Lobo , Vitaliy Kolodyazhniy , Bertrand Thirion , Denis A. Engemann

Cross-site generalizability in medical AI is fundamentally compromised by selection bias, a structural mechanism where patient demographics (e.g., age, severity) non-randomly dictate hospital assignment. Conventional Domain Generalization…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-03-27 Shaojin Bai , Yuting Su , Weizhi Nie

The endogeneity issue is fundamentally important as many empirical applications may suffer from the omission of explanatory variables, measurement error, or simultaneous causality. Recently, \cite{hllt17} propose a "Deep Instrumental…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-05-01 Ruiqi Liu , Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng

In pharmacoepidemiology research, instrumental variables (IVs) are variables that strongly predict treatment but have no causal effect on the outcome of interest except through the treatment. There remain concerns about the inclusion of IVs…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-22 Yuxi Tian , Nicole Pratt , Laura L Hester , George Hripcsak , Martijn J Schuemie , Marc A Suchard

Many policy evaluations occur in settings where treatment is randomized at the cluster level, and there is treatment noncompliance within each cluster. For example, villages might be assigned to treatment and control, but residents in each…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-08-16 Hyunseung Kang , Luke Keele

There is effect modification if the magnitude or stability of a treatment effect varies systematically with the level of an observed covariate. A larger or more stable treatment effect is typically less sensitive to bias from unmeasured…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-12-12 Kwonsang Lee , Dylan S. Small , Jesse Y. Hsu , Jeffrey H. Silber , Paul R. Rosenbaum

The chest X-ray (CXR) is commonly employed to diagnose thoracic illnesses, but the challenge of achieving accurate automatic diagnosis through this method persists due to the complex relationship between pathology. In recent years, various…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-05-23 Weizhi Nie , Chen Zhang , Dan song , Yunpeng Bai , Keliang Xie , Anan Liu

External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-08 Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

A major challenge in instrumental variables (IV) analysis is to find instruments that are valid, or have no direct effect on the outcome and are ignorable. Typically one is unsure whether all of the putative IVs are in fact valid. We…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-08-10 Zijian Guo , Hyunseung Kang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

Estimation and inference for the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a cornerstone of causal inference and often serves as the foundation for developing procedures for more complicated settings. Although traditionally analyzed in a batch…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-10 Ojash Neopane , Aaditya Ramdas , Aarti Singh

We present R software packages RobustIV and controlfunctionIV for causal inference with possibly invalid instrumental variables. RobustIV focuses on the linear outcome model. It implements the two-stage hard thresholding method to select…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-21 Taehyeon Koo , Youjin Lee , Dylan S. Small , Zijian Guo

Exogenous heterogeneity, for example, in the form of instrumental variables can help us learn a system's underlying causal structure and predict the outcome of unseen intervention experiments. In this paper, we consider linear models in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-21 Niklas Pfister , Jonas Peters

Randomized saturation designs are a family of designs which assign a possibly different treatment proportion to each cluster of a population at random. As a result, they generalize the well-known (stratified) completely randomized designs…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-21 Chencheng Cai , Jean Pouget-Abadie , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-22 Max Goplerud

One of the fundamental challenges in causal inference is to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on its outcome of interest from observational data. However, causal effect estimation often suffers from the impacts of confounding bias…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-23 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

In randomized trials, researchers are often interested in mediation analysis to understand how a treatment works, in particular how much of a treatment's effect is mediated by an intermediated variable and how much the treatment directly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-01-01 Dylan S. Small

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-23 Jason Hartford , Victor Veitch , Dhanya Sridhar , Kevin Leyton-Brown

The linear instrumental variable (IV) model is widely used in observational studies, yet its validity hinges on strong assumptions. Classical specification tests such as the Sargan-Hansen J test are limited to overidentified settings and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-21 Cyrill Scheidegger , Malte Londschien , Peter Bühlmann