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Though black-box predictors are state-of-the-art for many complex tasks, they often fail to properly quantify predictive uncertainty and may provide inappropriate predictions for unfamiliar data. Instead, we can learn more reliable models…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-12-14 Jean Feng , Arjun Sondhi , Jessica Perry , Noah Simon

Selective classification allows models to abstain from making predictions (e.g., say "I don't know") when in doubt in order to obtain better effective accuracy. While typical selective models can be effective at producing more accurate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-24 Adam Fisch , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Many safety failures in machine learning arise when models are used to assign predictions to people (often in settings like lending, hiring, or content moderation) without accounting for how individuals can change their inputs. In this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-04 Seung Hyun Cheon , Meredith Stewart , Bogdan Kulynych , Tsui-Wei Weng , Berk Ustun

Local explanation frameworks aim to rationalize particular decisions made by a black-box prediction model. Existing techniques are often restricted to a specific type of predictor or based on input saliency, which may be undesirably…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-02-12 Brandon Carter , Jonas Mueller , Siddhartha Jain , David Gifford

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

Black-box variational inference tries to approximate a complex target distribution though a gradient-based optimization of the parameters of a simpler distribution. Provable convergence guarantees require structural properties of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-17 Justin Domke

There is a rich and growing literature on producing local contrastive/counterfactual explanations for black-box models (e.g. neural networks). In these methods, for an input, an explanation is in the form of a contrast point differing in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-30 Tejaswini Pedapati , Avinash Balakrishnan , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Amit Dhurandhar

Robustness against uncertain and ambiguous inputs is a critical challenge for deep learning models. While recent advancements in large scale vision language models (VLMs, e.g. GPT4o) might suggest that increasing model and training dataset…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-05-20 Xi Wang , Eric Nalisnick

Selective prediction minimizes incorrect predictions from vision-language models (VLMs) by allowing them to abstain from answering when uncertain. However, when deploying a vision-language system with low tolerance for inaccurate…

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

With the wide adoption of machine learning techniques, requirements have evolved beyond sheer high performance, often requiring models to be trustworthy. A common approach to increase the trustworthiness of such systems is to allow them to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-16 Andrea Pugnana , Carlos Mougan , Dan Saattrup Nielsen

In model-based reinforcement learning, simulated experiences from the learned model are often treated as equivalent to experience from the real environment. However, when the model is inaccurate, it can catastrophically interfere with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-25 Erin J. Talvitie , Zilei Shao , Huiying Li , Jinghan Hu , Jacob Boerma , Rory Zhao , Xintong Wang

We present an interpretable companion model for any pre-trained black-box classifiers. The idea is that for any input, a user can decide to either receive a prediction from the black-box model, with high accuracy but no explanations, or…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-02-12 Danqing Pan , Tong Wang , Satoshi Hara

Selective Prediction is the task of rejecting inputs a model would predict incorrectly on. This involves a trade-off between input space coverage (how many data points are accepted) and model utility (how good is the performance on accepted…

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

For general users, training a neural network from scratch is usually challenging and labor-intensive. Fortunately, neural network zoos enable them to find a well-performing model for directly use or fine-tuning it in their local…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-24 Zhuoyi Shang , Yanwei Liu , Jinxia Liu , Xiaoyan Gu , Ying Ding , Xiangyang Ji

Many structured prediction tasks in machine vision have a collection of acceptable answers, instead of one definitive ground truth answer. Segmentation of images, for example, is subject to human labeling bias. Similarly, there are multiple…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2020-08-26 Michael Firman , Neill D. F. Campbell , Lourdes Agapito , Gabriel J. Brostow

Despite the great advancement of Language modeling in recent days, Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT3 are notorious for generating non-factual responses, so-called "hallucination" problems. Existing methods for detecting and…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-09-29 Seongho Joo , Kyungmin Min , Jahyun Koo , Kyomin Jung

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-29 Anna Sokol , Nuno Moniz , Nitesh Chawla

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-17 Emily Black , Klas Leino , Matt Fredrikson
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