相关论文: A critical study of the Monte Carlo replica method

For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…

Acceptance-rejection (AR), Independent Metropolis Hastings (IMH) or importance sampling (IS) Monte Carlo (MC) simulation algorithms all involve computing ratios of probability density functions (pdfs). On the other hand, classifiers…

There has recently been considerable interest in addressing the problem of unifying distributed statistical analyses into a single coherent inference. This problem naturally arises in a number of situations, including in big-data settings,…

This paper explores the versatility and depth of Bayesian modeling by presenting a comprehensive range of applications and methods, combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and variational approximations. Covering topics such as…

We test the AdS/CFT correspondence by calculating Wilson loops in N = 4 super Yang-Mills theory on R*S^3 in the planar limit. Our method is based on a novel large-N reduction, which reduces the problem to Monte Carlo calculations in the…

Monte Carlo is famous for accepting model extensions and model refinements up to infinite dimension. However, this powerful incremental design is based on a premise which has severely limited its application so far: a state-variable can…

In many problems, complex non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear models are required to accurately describe a physical system of interest. In such cases, Monte Carlo algorithms are remarkably flexible and extremely powerful approaches to solve such…

This paper proposes a new theory and methodology to tackle the problem of unifying distributed analyses and inferences on shared parameters from multiple sources, into a single coherent inference. This surprisingly challenging problem…

The goal of this study is to find a prescription for defining parton distributions (PDFs) which are most appropriate for use in those codes where only LO matrix elements (MEs) are used, as in many Monte Carlo generators. We describe a…

An important feature of Bayesian statistics is the opportunity to do sequential inference: the posterior distribution obtained after seeing a dataset can be used as prior for a second inference. However, when Monte Carlo sampling methods…

Monte Carlo methods are widely used for approximating complicated, multidimensional integrals for Bayesian inference. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) is an important class of Monte Carlo methods, which utilizes a population of proposals to…

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

A Bayesian framework is attractive in the context of prediction, but a fast recursive update of the predictive distribution has apparently been out of reach, in part because Monte Carlo methods are generally used to compute the predictive.…

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes' theorem and thus provides a means to directly sample the underlying…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

We introduce the Hessian reweighting of parton distribution functions (PDFs). Similarly to the better-known Bayesian methods, its purpose is to address the compatibility of new data and the quantitative modifications they induce within an…

Bayesian design of experiments and sample size calculations usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power therefore often lack closed-form or…

We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties…

In global QCD fits of parton distribution functions (PDFs), a large part of the estimated uncertainty on the PDFs originates from the choices of parametric functional forms and fitting methodology. We argue that these types of uncertainties…

We implement a Monte Carlo sampling strategy to extract helicity parton densities and their uncertainties from a reference set of longitudinally polarized scattering data, chosen to be that used in the DSSV14 global analysis. Instead of…