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Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-26 Steven Siwei Ye , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), missing data can occur in various ways, including missing values in outcomes and baseline covariates at the individual or cluster level, or completely missing information for non-participants. Among the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-06 Bingkai Wang , Fan Li , Rui Wang

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in code generation, where the natural language prompt plays a crucial role in conveying user intent to the model. However, prior studies have shown that LLMs are highly…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2025-12-11 Shuhan Liu , Xing Hu , Kerui Huang , Xiaohu Yang , David Lo , Xin Xia

In causal inference about two treatments, Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) play an important role as a quantity representing an individualized causal effect, defined as a difference between the expected outcomes of the two…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-10-26 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

Reward models (RMs) are fundamental to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) via human feedback, yet they often suffer from reward hacking. They tend to latch on to superficial or spurious attributes, such as response length or formatting,…

Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is complicated by the presence of multiple mediators, intracluster correlation, and within-cluster interference. Existing mediation methods often fall short in accommodating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Jiaqi Tong , Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Estimating individualized treatment rules (ITRs) is crucial for tailoring interventions in precision medicine. Typical ITR estimation methods rely on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) to guide treatment assignments. However,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-20 Peng Wu , Qing Jiang , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

Doubly robust estimators with cross-fitting have gained popularity in causal inference due to their favorable structure-agnostic error guarantees. However, when additional structure, such as H\"{o}lder smoothness, is available then more…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-05-08 Alec McClean , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman

We investigate the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under a very general setup where the covariates can be high-dimensional, highly correlated, and can have sparse nonlinear effects on the propensity and outcome…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Jianqing Fan , Soham Jana , Sanjeev Kulkarni , Qishuo Yin

Treatment effect estimates are often available from randomized controlled trials as a single average treatment effect for a certain patient population. Estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are more useful for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-12 Wouter A. C. van Amsterdam , Rajesh Ranganath

Inferring causal individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is a challenging problem whose difficulty is exacerbated by the presence of treatment assignment bias. In this work, we propose a new way to estimate the ITE using…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-16 Abhin Shah , Kartik Ahuja , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Dennis Wei , Kush Varshney , Amit Dhurandhar

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for full sample analyses. This article extends these methods to estimate ATEs for discrete subgroups…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-16 Peter Z. Schochet

A prominent family of methods for learning data distributions relies on density ratio estimation (DRE), where a model is trained to $\textit{classify}$ between data samples and samples from some reference distribution. DRE-based models can…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-01 Shahar Yadin , Noam Elata , Tomer Michaeli

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-30 Elan Rosenfeld , Pradeep Ravikumar , Andrej Risteski

In health and social sciences, it is critically important to identify subgroups of the study population where there is notable heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) with respect to the population average. Decision trees have been…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-28 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Riccardo Cadei , Kwonsang Lee , Francesca Dominici

The synthetic control method estimates the causal effect by comparing the treated unit's outcomes to a weighted average of control units that closely match its pre-treatment outcomes, assuming the relationship between treated and control…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-07 Taehyeon Koo , Zijian Guo

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-11 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

This article carries out a large dimensional analysis of standard regularized discriminant analysis classifiers designed on the assumption that data arise from a Gaussian mixture model with different means and covariances. The analysis…